Wednesday, October 12, 2016


Im having difficulty putting into words what it is I am currently thinking.  Several years ago we wrote about the Apple IPad and the implication for sales of personal computers.  The Ipad seemed to be what is called a disruptor but its impact on overall economic activity was and is minimal.

 If there is going to be a serious economic decline,  there is one main place to look in my opinion.  That is Amazon.  We all use Amazon. Its getting bigger and bigger and is run by an obvious genius.  He is on the fast path to destroy "all" retail businesses which account for a large portion of our jobs and GDP.

Amazon is becoming so huge that it is on the road to becoming every manufacturers largest customer. The manufacturers, because of this phenomenon,have to do business with Amazon.  Amazon  in turn is putting pressure on the sellers of goods to provide products at a discounted price.  This will eventually lead producers to cut back on their costs which will lead to job loss and deflation.

Amazon, which was already selling most anything you could want is now branching into auto parts, office supplies, groceries, television shows, fast food delivery, etc.  Who knows where this will all lead.  Unfortunately it appears from the weakness in  the retail industry, not to a good place.

Point made!

Monday, October 10, 2016


It's almost impossible to convince the "forgotten man" that increased taxes on the so called rich is a bad idea. The environment is one of very high unemployment, declining standards of living and interest rates for treasuries which are close to zero.

There was a day when the politicians of America sought individual votes but then they learned that it was easier to group the electorate into "special interest groups" and convince groups rather than individuals to vote for them.

That was the beginning. In a fabulous book written by Amity Shlaes called the "The Forgotten Man" we can see the historical development of how the mass of the population has been forgotten. There are tens of millions of people who go to work in this country, pay their mortgages, educate their children, don't end up in jail, pay their bills, don't require welfare and live their lives with no representation in the government.

If you are part of a special interest or minority group you have representation. If you are just a plain old "forgotten man", the backbone of the country, you have very little representation if any. The politicians have actually made the forgotten man feel guilty. Why in the world should anyone pay their mortgage or their debt if so many people are allowed not to? This is one of the coming crises of rewarding those who fail and penalizing those that succeed.

It's time for the forgotten man to stand up in a concerted way without riot and revolution and say enough is enough. You are responsible if you bought a house even if you didn't know what you were doing. More and more people will "opt out" of the system as they realize if you succeed you are the enemy.

Friday, October 7, 2016


There probably is no  major media company that has failed as miserably as the New York Times.
The CEO takes at least 7 million in compensation and probably lives in an apartment worth 10 or 20 million dollars.

Today's article about the failures of Donald Trump totally leaves out his fabulous recovery from near bankruptcy and the fact that he is a billionaire several times over.  His company is private.  There are probably not 10 individually owned companies as successful as the Trump empire.

Take a look at Trumps children and use that as a measure of success.

Monday, October 3, 2016


Before you vote you may want to know who was really responsible for the housing crisis.

Then you must read a book called "Reckless Endangerment".  It is written by Gretchen Morgenson and Joshua Rosner.

Tuesday, September 27, 2016


I looked at the tax receipts and expenditures for the federal government for the past twenty years. This period covers Presidents Clinton, Bush and Obama. There was a surplus for a few years in the late 1990’s.

A U.S. Treasury report of May 2008 stated that “Much of the growth during the late 1990s can be attributed to the extraordinary performance of the stock market and its effects on individual income tax receipts”. It further stated that “Capital gains income more than quadrupled between 1994 and 2000. Tax receipts from capital gains realization more than tripled during this period, even though the tax rate on capital gains was reduced beginning in 1997”. As to the increase of taxable income the report stated “Taxable personal income grew faster than GDP during this period. Much of the rise in wages was related to the exercise of stock options and bonus income".

On July 17, 1995 the NASDAQ stock index closed above the 1,000. On March 10, 2000 the index reached a high of 5,132. The NASDAQ bubble of this period under a Democratic President Clinton and a Republican controlled congress contributed significantly to creating a budget surplus. Unfortunately the NASDAQ (DOT.COM) which kept strong receipts flowing into the treasury was destructed by the crash of Bubble Number One. A surplus of any significance was only achieved for a couple of years.

When President Bush took office the budget surplus was already declining. Then the staggering September 11 attacks took place. President Bush and the Congress enacted an emergency tax relief program to attempt to stop the slide in economic activity. The results of those tax cuts are best described in the same Department of Treasury report. The report states: “After 2004, tax revenues again grew faster than the economy. Between 2004 and 2006, capital gains realizations grew by approximately 60 percent. Growth in corporate income tax receipts was especially strong recently, nearly doubling in levels between 2004 and 2007”.

As the economy began to recover bubble number two, the housing market got completely out of control. When this bubble burst the economy was in a free fall. The very large deficit of 2009 and 2010 were caused by a response to Bubble Number Two. Again both Presidents Bush and Obama and the Congress along with the Fed responded very effectively.

Where we sit today our country is still facing double digit unemployment in many areas. Increasing taxes is not supported by official U.S. Treasury commentary. The deficit is not a partisan problem.

Requiring two bubbles to keep this economy in a prosperous state for the last two decades is an unfortunate state of circumstances. The problem is that it’s almost impossible to stop bubbles in free economic democracy. Stay tuned…

Monday, September 26, 2016


I am personally against abortion but if you want an abortion you should be able to get one without any problems. 

Gun Control is like the problem we face with illegal drug use.  It's impossible to keep guns out of the wrong hands completely just like its impossible to believe that illegal drug use will ever go away completely. We should continue to maintain laws that protect the innocent and persecute the guilty in both matters. 

I am not in favor of rich people, poor people or any other particular group, I am only in favor of economic policies that work to make our country better for as many people as possible. 

I am not against Medicare, Medicaid or Social Security, but I am in favor of policies that will make them last permanently.

I won't appease any particular group or interest in order to be elected. 

I am in favor of an education system that raises the accomplishment of a much larger segment of our school populations.  I will find a way to sit down with the top school union representatives and work out a mutually agreeable plan that will get this well on the road during my administration. 

My administration will be color blind, religion blind, gender blind, handicapped blind, minority blind and sexuality blind.  

I will pick people who will do their jobs for all Americans even when decisions create controversy.

I will not run the traditional political play game of buying votes.

I will do the best I can even if I am not elected to a second term if I win the first.

I will not allow Israel or any of our allies to be scapegoated by politics. 

Thursday, August 25, 2016


With all the rhetoric about everything,very little is said about the greatness of America's ingenuity. Caterpillar, Boeing, Microsoft, Drug companies, Google, Facebook, Cisco, IBM, General Motors....I could go on and on and on. In the process of globalization, it's easy enough to copy our high labor content products but how many great drugs have come out of China, Venezuela, Russia, North Korea, Mexico...I could go on and on and on.
Yes we make what seem to be continuous mistakes and we don't solve some big problems, but to call the American contribution to human and industrial development anything but great is to be looking in the wrong direction.
When China announces its going to make a commercial jet its just a copycat. That's all.
Unfortunately, the copycats of the world are a significant competitive force. When our own government doesn't realize that much more money is saved by the creation of new drugs, than is achieved by all the generics in the world, is to add "insult to injury." Stay Tuned...


Shepard Osherow. All Rights Reserved