Tuesday, November 21, 2017


It was 1987. The book was called "The Great Depression of 1990". It was close to a number one bestseller. The writer was regularly on TV, was left-wing and a major university economics professor.

The Dow Jones was less than 3,000. The book concluded you should sell all your stocks and real estate.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average immediately began an ascent from less than 3,000 to close to 12,000 in the 1990's. Real estate prices doubled and tripled to absurdly overvalued levels.

The sensationalist professor in my views, attempting to become famous with extreme projections and recommendations, fell out of favor.

Today we have other people, mainly professors, often using extreme views to obtain attention. One of them is a man called Jim Rogers who doesn't seem to have managed any publicly recorded money in almost thirty years. He too follows the trampled road using intellect to prepare extremist advice geared towards scaring the average investor into oblivion.

Rogers has created the "Rogers" commodity index which is the kind of thing that can be put together by most anyone with a computer in my opinion.

Just as the Depression of 1990 fell off a cliff in it's timing and significant number of wrong commentary, I think it would be wise to beware of the pundits of either extreme optimism or extreme pessimism.

Please note that Warren Buffet tends to go against the crowd and does not often establish extreme views in either direction. Watch out for marketers wearing the cloak of financial acumen without having any recent or current public investment record.

Wednesday, November 1, 2017


In general terms many politicians have found it advantageous to attack American companies. They get away with this because the people that work at these companies haven’t clearly figured out that attacking companies (which are basically are pieces of paper) is really an attack against the employees that work there.

I have not seen a figure published that shows how many dollars have been saved in medical costs because drug companies created products that eliminated many illnesses. Yet it’s easy to attack drug companies; when they don’t vote and the employees have not banded together to unite against such attacks. The real cost in the medical system is not prescription drugs, by a long shot, its labor outside the drug and medical equipment companies.

Hopefully distortions of reality will be overcome by time and patience.


What looks like scattered chaos is really an expansion of the Arab "Plan of Phases" manifesto.

Knowing that it was unlikely than any coalition of  terrorist groups could militarily defeat democracy, the plan was expanded.

In essence it says that it will keep on attacking, through one means or another, for so  long a period of time as is necessary so that ultimately capitalism  would collapse from within, as the left and the right can no longer find common ground.

President Obama's appeasement policies have helped expand the "plan of phases" so that it will become worldwide.

It looks as if we just didn't provide enough help to Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and our southern borders.  The reality is that a vast plan has been developing for years where a slow and steady encroachment of our preferred way of life would be under assault from an increasing number of directions.

We have had to create the transportation safety department, increase the NSA surveillance, face immense problems on our borders and are finding that every where we have left militarily the opportunity for the "bad guys" to annoy us has been increased.

It's unfortunate that we are in such a position.  Look at it this way.  Israel does not want to be in its continual state of military and security preparedness, but it is.  President Obama's policy of retreat has failed.  Every day that passes it's becoming more probable that the risk of reversing the plan of phases against us will be higher and higher.

This didn't start on 9/11, it's been in the planing stage for real long time.


Shepard Osherow. All Rights Reserved