MARKETS & EMOTIONS (Originally Written October 6, 1981)

horror of the nuclear age

 IN  ww two France surrendered very quickly. It did not want its historic treasures destroyed.even at the cost of becoming slaves.   Russia is fully aware of Europes mentality.It is completely incapable of protecting itself wthout the USA.Americans did not want to help Europe until  it became impossible not to. Every excuse was made not to even stop the genocide of millions.Thats reality.Are we really facing a sociopathic putin or is  it largely a bluff of a  dying Russia. Only he knows.There are ways out of this dilemma They r complex.they require a level of leadership that not  many possess.RUSSIAS actions are insane, even if you give them every benefit of the doubt.IN the age of hypersonic missiles etc etc our oceans r not the protection they once were.There r so many questions. A wise person once said that  in the age of the potential  of total destruction  the only way to win the game is NOT PLAY .   it looks like we r playing

CHAINS OF MANY KINDS...HOUSING, HISTORY, GOVERNMENT AND FREEDOM (ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 8/14/12)

Sixty years ago we bought our first house. It was $11,000.00. About ten years later we sold it for $30,000.00. Basically housing prices rose steadily for sixty years. Along the way home ownership became a cult idea. It started with Roosevelt and ended in a crescendo of speculation and absurd overpricing. No one really knew why a house was worth so much and why everybody should have one. There were lots of theories. Are we now faced with a cyclical downturn in housing demand? Or have we reached a tipping point where more and more people say “Hey I don’t need a 3,000 square foot house… I just need a 1,200 or 1,600 square foot home.” That would be a break in the mania, not just a typical cyclical decline. I don’t think too many people would argue with the idea that everyone should have all the “good things in life”, the only real difference of opinion would be how to accomplish that goal.

Abraham Lincoln once had a debate with Stephen A. Douglas. They were both running for Senator of Illinois. Douglas said the slaves of the south were better off than the northern immigrants. His rationale was that slaves were property and generally treated better than the northern laborers. This appeared to be true at the time. Lincoln’s response was that the difference between the northern laborers and the slaves was that northern laborers would eventually be upwardly mobile, one after the other. One would a start business, many would begin to hire their own employees and another would rise up in someone else’s business. Whereas he said that slaves, on the other hand, couldn’t go anywhere. They had their chains.

Unfortunately there are many kinds of chains. One can be chasing an impossible dream that housing prices will rise forever, or that internet prices will rise forever, or that people will stay pessimistic forever or that the government will provide for you forever. We are reaching the point where millions and millions of people are working for the government. We are increasingly restrained by an enlarging government which is viewed as beneficial but instead, in many ways, is becoming a new form of imposed chains.

Almost every significant unionized industry in America has failed. Now the largest unionized segment in America is government. I’m not against unions, anymore than I am pro-incompetent management. But they have both often caused more harm than good and been well compensated along the way.

People don’t leave what they believe to be secure environments. With unionized government jobs you’re unlikely to leave. You give up on opportunity. You generally vote for those in control that convince you that this is a good deal. You are mentally captured by what they seem to be providing and give up almost any chance for significant opportunity. Are we now on the road to the subtle enslavement state? You may be free to go, but how can you. Lincoln was right when he implied that “chains” come in many different varieties.

Government can only be paid for by taxes. If wages and salaries aren’t rising, and stocks aren’t rising, and houses aren’t rising, there isn’t going to be much to pay for future government. Freedom to succeed will ultimately create  a more economically equal society. Reducing that freedom, whether well meaning or not, will ultimately prolong the problem. Certainly taxation without representation, where a small percentage of the people pay almost all of the taxes, will not work. The ultra wealthy who attempt to shield their real tax reducing methods, while shouting for equality, don’t help solve our problems.

.TODAY A DOOR MAN MIGHT

There  was a day when a doorman was considered security. not today. A doorman is  of little or no security value.Most dont even consider serious security within there job definition.There is no way to secure a free country of  330 million people.A feeble attempt to do so is to placate the people not change level of  safety.MOSTLY we r on our own.Until we can admit that Lincoln didnt care if he freed the slaves or not.Union at any cost was his objective. THE FOUNDING FATHERs KNEW THE CANCER OF SLAVERY WOULD BLIGHT THE COUNTRY . In spite  of this recognition they knew that the issue could not be resolved at the time.In the day America was not a country. It was a agglomeration. They   were europeans,mostly.Could a mix of so many different folks be blended together and work . We still dont know. We  r a work in process.The glass is shaking but still standing.        `Russia is not just another country. Whether putin is crazy or not  he sees  that the usa was created not  from revolution but  the civil war.In more recent times we couldnt have won world war 2 without russia. They lost 25 million people, so maybe they see things a little differently.NO country has been able to defeat russia when it really counted.In the nuclear age trying to win is  a path to no where ,unless   u really mean it.