Wednesday, August 20, 2014

ISRAEL - A GAME WITH ZERO PROBABILITY OF AN END?

In a baseball game there are players at all different positions.  If you remove one player at a time from the field, each removal will weaken the defense against the opposition.  The same thing is true in other sports.  In a chess game the objective is to take pieces from the opposing player in order to ultimately capture the king.

It has become obvious to me, that there is at this time no possible way to settle the Palestinian question.  Years ago associates of mine tried to involve me in an organization called "Peace Now".  It was one of many groups that sought to provide a specific methodology for bringing peace to the Israel/Palestinian confusion.  I didn't agree with the "Peace Now" plan then, and up until now it seems to have been totally wrong.  

ISIS, Hezbollah, Hamas, Taliban, Fatah, Muslim Brotherhood, etc. appear to be different groups  with various positions on one issue or another.  Yet each one of these groups are acting collectively as one team, prepared to take on whomever chooses to challenge them.  If one group (player) withdraws from the field by settling differences with Israel, United States, etc. the entire group (team) is weakened. 

Consequently it is becoming obvious that a settlement from any single terrorist related group will not occur in any time frame relevant to current attempts.  

BLOG OF THE DAY

In the old days every army had people who were arrow makers.  They made an endless supply of arrows.  In addition, most battles were always...

Thursday, July 31, 2014

LATEST BLOG OF THE DAY...

Israel is fighting for its survival.   CNN keeps putting up the United Nations representatives as the protectors of the Palestinians and not keeping the context of civilian casualties honest and unbiased.


BLOG OF THE DAY

In the old days every army had people who were arrow makers.  They made an endless supply of arrows.  In addition, most battles were always fought with a certain number of troops being kept in reserve.  Reserves have often been the difference between winning and losing.  Obviously, if you didn't have arrows you lost.

It's incomprehensible for Israel to not have an endless supply of ammunition. Their reserves are limited, but not to have ammunition suggests that this generation of Israelis generals don't fully grasp what happened to the French in Vietnam. Limited reserves, limited ammunition and confused leadership.  Very scary...

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

WAR SUCKS...BUT LOSING IS WORSE...

There are very few words to describe war.  People die horrible deaths.

In World war II 25 million civilians died.  In the continuing turmoil in the Middle East, Pakistan and Afghanistan, 250 thousand civilians have died.

Whether the four little Palestinian boys on the beach in Gaza were just playing or placed there is irrelevant. They are unfortunate civilian casualties of war.  No nation has made the effort to avoid civilian casualties more than what we see being made by  the Israeli government.

Most news media sources distort the news when they don't present the full picture of why civilians die in wars.

Israel and Hamas are at war.  Unfortunately civilians will die.  The news media has to totally stop "psychologically" trying to place the blame on Israel.

If Hamas doesn't want its civilians to die, all they have to do is stop fighting.





Tuesday, July 29, 2014

LAUGH OF THE DAY

The New York Times has the audacity to keep on telling everyone else how to live their lives, yet they can't recognize their own inability to manage their own house.  Today the New York Times reported another miserable business quarter.

Beware of about anything you read in this paper...

Monday, July 21, 2014

RUSSIA - REAGAN OVERTURNED...

If you accept the thesis that Putin views the Russian population as too small to contend with the huge populations of Pakistan, Indonesia, India and China, etc. then you begin to see the reality of what is truly taking place.

If you accept another  thesis that there is a long term plan, most significantly by Russia and several Islamic terrorist groups, to diminish the European and American alliance then you are seeing  the real picture.

No one even talks about Crimea anymore.  We have absolutely no power to sanction Russia in any meaningful way.  The Europeans will not join with us for fear of losing their energy resources.  If Russia chose to cut them off, the hardship in the European nations will far exceed the drop of Russian oil revenues.  In any case, Russia is a country  on a mission and Europe would freeze before Russia gave in.

Putin realizes that no threats, from anyone, have any substance behind them. No one is prepared to go to war over any action that Russia takes.  What would we or Europe do if Russia decided to reclaim Poland, etc.?  Putin theorizes that there is absolutely nothing we would do.

We can't even stop the French from sending advanced weapons to Russia; even under the current circumstances.

There have been long periods history where fear of consequences trumped evil actions.

Because of the political mistakes made by the U.S., and Europe choosing to put its security into Russian hands, Putin now indirectly controls more oil outside of Russia than he ever could dream of.

Russia also knows no civilized nation is going to use atomic weapons.  It is only a question of how far Putin is willing to go to achieve the "Renaissance of the Motherland".

Thursday, July 17, 2014

OBAMA ...NO COMMENT!!!(ORIGINALLY POSTED 7/23/12)

The Taliban continue to thrive in Afghanistan.  Al Qaeda is still a problem throughout the world.  Iraq  continues in a semi-state of war.  Socialists have taken over in France.  Russia refuses to cooperate with the Obama administration in the Mideast.  Its seems if no progress has been made on the Iranian situation.  Egypt has elected fundamentalists similar to the Iranian government.   Syria borders on the unbelievable in this day and age. Obama was elected with little or no foreign policy experience.  

America's a democracy, we get what we vote for.  

THE PC BUSINESS IS COMING BACK TO LIFE...(ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 4/29/13)

Exactly at the point where everything is changing, pessimism runs deep in the personal computer space.

Practically no one who goes into an office or classroom setting uses a tablet to prepare their spreadsheets, letters, term papers, etc. etc.  We wrote a blog in April 2011 (A Retailer Making Computers) about the destructive nature of the tablet to the PC business.

Now we are pointing out that PC business is at the beginning of a resurgence of significance.


Wednesday, July 16, 2014

RUSSIA - THE PROBLEM IS WE REFUSE TO BELIEVE IT...(ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 3/19/14)

Russia provides arms to Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Taliban, Syrians, Al Qaeda, and almost every other anti-western military organization.

President Obama has actually believed that our "disengagement" would cause the opposition to retreat.  Thousands of years of world history has shown retreat becomes an endless process, where at best you are left with the choices of the aggressor.

A recent New York City newspaper editorial wrote about weakening the Russian expansion by building our energy independence.  This editorial actually talked in some whimsical way about President Obama capturing the moment by setting us on a decades long rebirth of our nation.

Russia has slowly but surely cemented an increasing share of the energy supply.  As I wrote in a blog a while back, it would have been alot easier to solve the Syrian situation if we would have done what had to be done at the beginning of this murderous catastrophe.

It has been forgotten in the press that up until recently a Russian battleship was stationed in Cuba. As far I know, it may still be there.  If Russia will not back down when we stand up to them, its only a matter of time when we reach the point that they will never back down and guess what, we will.

Just as the IPad changed the outlook for the PC Industry, Russia's long term plan seems to be the resurrection of the Russian Empire, especially under the Obama administration.


Tuesday, July 15, 2014

RUSSIA AND OBAMA'S UNDER PERFORMING PORTFOLIO....

The first thing that really has to be understood, in order to have clarity of insight,  is to determine whose in charge.

In the money management industry people sometime change from one manager to another.  When they do their existing portfolios consist of stocks and bonds.

The new money management firm takes on responsibility for managing the client's portfolio; meaning they have responsibility of the clients assets from the day they receive the new client's portfolio.

It is close to impossible to be able to blame the prior portfolio management firm for performance under the new manager's aegis.  The new manager is responsible for the performance from day one and can't blame poor performance on who managed the money before them.

This exact same concept is true about foreign policy. President Obama and his team have been responsible since they got elected.  They made their choices, they could have made different ones.

The dominoes are falling in the Middle East and potentially in alot of other places around the world.  As the Polish foreign minister just implied, relying on president Obama for protection is ludicrous.

Blaming George Bush or Cheney is politics and is the rhetoric of self interested and dangerous people.  It was Obama's portfolio from the day he was elected. 

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

OBAMA IS NO ABRAHAM LINCOLN...

We continue to watch the ineptitude of the Obama administration.

President Obama blackmailed Israel into supporting the joining of Hamas with the Palestinian government.  The weakness of our foreign policy is allowing the Middle Eastern dominoes to fall.  Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia will be next.  Unfortunately I don't believe you can stop terrorist organizations with fancy words and appeasement.

We may be getting close to a tipping point, with Kerry and Obama totally incapable of handling the situation.  

Monday, July 7, 2014

ISRAEL'S DISGRACE...

Human nature may be human nature.  The atrocity in Israel of six Israeli Jews murdering an innocent Palestinian boy reaches beyond what diaspora  Jews expect Israel to be.

I have written about the black murders in Chicago extensively.  The fact that a disproportionate number of murders were committed by black people meant little.  The color of their skin was irrelevant, it was the murder rate that was and still is atrocious.

As a Jew, continuously supportive of the plight facing Israelis, I now find myself disgusted. There is no excuse or explanation any more so than applies to any other group of people.  A friend of mine once told me that if Jews don't support each other, no one else will.  If this is what the circumstances have brought Israeli's society to, they are no better than any other crime ridden group.

The fact is, just as there are significant problems in minority segments of our population, there is a big problem in Israel.  Explanations don't cut it.

Thursday, June 26, 2014

RACIAL ANIMUS...

The Democrats don't like attacks on their policies.  They often turn to the "race card" in order to divert attention from the issues.

An Attorney General is supposed to bring  peace and healing to the national agenda, instead he brings race.

If I've ever seen "racial animus" in action it's when 95 percent of the black people vote for a man just because of his color.  Take a look in your own closet and stop bringing hatred, instead of peace.

There's animus everywhere, always has been, always will be.

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

VA - IRS - UNIONS...

I was interested in what went wrong at the VA and I looked to see if their work force was highly unionized. It was only logical to look and see if the IRS is unionized also.  Guess what...they are both highly unionized.

I've written several blogs about the unionization of government.  We are republishing just one below that was originally published in January 2011.


 "Are Destructive Union Votes Worth It?"
Tuesday, January 11, 2011 ARE VOTES WORTH IT?
On August 27, 2010, we said in a blog that "Almost every significant unionized industry in America has failed. Now the largest unionized segment in America is government."

In the January 8, 2011 issue of the Economist magazine the lead story is titled "The battle ahead - Confronting the public-sector unions."
If you accept the thesis that I'm even partially correct about the negative effect of unions and their inflexible total compensation costs being responsible for destroying the competitive condition of significant industries, you will be well advised to ask "Are unions likely to destroy the government?"
Isn't it only a matter of time before some union representing the fire department, police department or the post office, goes on strike? Obviously it will happen. It's tough to change people. Note carefully the behavior of certain union members during the recent New York City snowfall.
During the ongoing turmoil in Wisconsin, a prominent Democrat exhorted the public to "stick by their friends." This may have been true a few decades ago when people took government jobs based on their security, retirement benefits and often a lack of complexity.
Today we have evolved a system where the unionized government sector indirectly threatens to strike and withhold their votes from the government politicians who don't give them what they want.
Government gets its money from taxes; so what these unions are saying to their so called "friends" is give us more of your tax dollars or we will take away your services.
During the formative years of our republic, there was serious debate about what functions the central governments would serve, both at the local and the federal levels. After Hamilton's persuasive arguments for a collective defense among the states, it was also agreed that government would stay close to the people by providing all types of services, and thereby make it easier for existing members to get reelected.
Think carefully about what some of the things the government does for us. We go to a post office, they hand you your mail. You go to a motor vehicle office, they hand you a license. You apply for a passport, they mail you a passport. They send you social security checks. These are simplistic functions that can just as easily be done by the private sector, for profit, save money, and reduce the deficit significantly.
Functions that don't have to be done by government should be taken out of the hands of government. It's time for a more introspective America, especially in some of our big cities where people think that the sharing of ideas around water coolers actually adds merit to the city.

Thursday, June 12, 2014

RUSSIA SCORES ANOTHER GOAL

President Obama would never have been elected if he wasn't black. The color of his skin should have been of as little value to a voter as gender, sexuality, etc.  In a perfect world, one's view of the competence of the candidate should have been the most important factor to consider.

I don't find any pleasure in criticizing the President of the United States.

For whatever my humble opinion is worth, I'm hard pressed to find in history many Presidents who have done the country so much harm.  It is crystal clear to other countries that the primary foreign policy that we are following is one of isolation.  Obama seems to be talking about building coalitions without any comprehension that the coalitions on the other side are rapidly escalating in size and power.

At first Congressman Cantor's election loss seemed like a passing event. Cantor's views on the economy, health care, education or immigration didn't play the part in the outcome as common wisdom suggests.  It seems more likely that it was the voter's reaction to Cantor's  past negotiations with President Obama. His constituents wanted him to hold the party line and not concede, so as to show  the value of conviction.

Not holding the line in the face of an attempt to gain at our expense in the world political equation won't work either.


OIL, RUSSIA AND UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES...(ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 3/28/14)

Its been said by some psychologists that opposites attract.  Its been said by others that common interests attract.

Is it possible that what we are seeing in international relations is a "tipping point"?

Those countries that have oil will be entering into an era of diminishing common interests with the oil consuming nations.  In its place will begin a second OPEC, more concerned about maintaining the price of a barrel of oil than their fear of having their governments replaced by radical elements within their own societies.  Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Venezuela, Brazil, etc. will strengthen their connections and alliances.

The message that will be sent is that you will not force the price of oil substantially lower by rhetoric of climate change and the need for alternative energies.

This will incrementally increase the reliance on oil suppliers.  We are in no position to have the revenues of oil supplying nations substantially reduced by policies of reducing oil consumption.

Too much tax revenue is collected from oil consumption, too many people feed their families due to oil production and the simplistic appeasement of Russia will reduce the loyalty of several significant producers towards the United States.

Sunday, May 18, 2014

JILL ABRAMSON-HARD WORKING WOMAN VS. NEW YORK TIMES (ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 11/18/10)

The New York Times often writes articles about the inequality of wealth. Without further comment, I looked at the total compensation of the top executive at the New York Times. This is a very poorly run company and in my opinion has done almost everything wrong. The total compensation of the top executive at the New York Times was approximately $6,000,000.00 in 2009. (Same now in 2014) Enough said for now. Stay tuned...

Thursday, April 3, 2014

HIGH FREQUENCY TRADING...UNINTENDED LONG TERM CONSEQUENCES.

Back in the day brokerage firms were owned by partners. If the firm lost money, the partners were personally liable. Commission charges to buy and sell stocks and bonds were extremely high but no one forced anyone to buy and sell stocks and pay those fees. When I was originally a broker at E.F. Hutton and Company and I wanted to get a quote on a stock, I walked up to the front of the room, stood in a long line, picked up the phone and was able to request one quote and only one. I then had to find my way back to the desk through the throngs of other brokers, I would give my customer the quote which really wasn't current anymore, I would write out the order on what was called a trade ticket, I would put it in a vacuum tube, it would travel a long distance and about an hour later I would know if we bought the stock or not. Times have changed.

Somewheres along the line the powers that be decided that fixed and high commission rates were not the way to grow a hearty participation in American Capitalism among the people. Rates were then lowered, then lowered, then lowered, and then lowered. It also came to pass that "money management for a fee" began its monumental growth. We now can trade billions of shares a day explained by the cult of the necessity for a liquid market. The liquidity is well out of balance with the actual need and has turned stocks into the semblance of a gambling casino with all the rules and regulations of such activity very much in place within our markets. Research is superficial and shoddy at best, but thinking, fortunately, keeps evolving through higher and higher levels.

About the same time,Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette found a way to pierce the wall of the New York Stock Exchange prohibition requiring all member firms to be private. The cry became "the road to growth requires public capital and we as partners can no longer foresee having enough capital to sustain significant growth". The members of the exchange tried to maintain their historical rules of private companies but the opportunity for making the existing partners wealthy men controlled the outcome. So the door was opened and privately owned firms were able to create great wealth for their owners by selling shares in their privately owned companies. There is no question that I personally benefited from this "time in history". The combination of much lower commissions and the loss of the future money management asset growth, made the traditional brokerage business a heck of lot less profitable, even with the ancillary interest income.

This is the story of what really led to the breakdown of the investment arena into a gambling casino.


Wednesday, February 26, 2014

ICAHN HOPE - SCHNEIDERMAN'S SOCIALISM???

For those of you that are interested in the stock market I'm sure you read about the advantages of investing in low cost market index funds.  As the expectations for hedge fund rate of returns continue to decline, more and more money will head toward the indexes.  Whether this is good or bad is entirely another story.

For lack of being able to put it in a better context, I draw your attention to the liberal Attorney General of New York State.  A "lightweight" according to Donald Trump, and probably a light weight in reality.

Recently the Attorney General of New York State made some kind of agreement that asset management firms had to change the way they solicit information from Wall Street analysts.  First of all there is some serious question of whether most information solicited from analysts, on a repetitive basis, adds over time to the performance of equity portfolios.  I venture to say that it doesn't.

But this is not the point.  Our economic system is predicated on the hope that one can rise from the ashes to the top of the heap.  When someone has money to invest, it is human nature to try to make the best possible investment they can.  If they give their money to a "professional" they expect that professional will seek and evaluate information to give the investor some hope of outperforming the returns from the indexes.  It is hope that creates excitement in life.

What the Attorney General of NY is trying to do is a typical liberal ploy of intimating to the public that they are somehow being taken advantage of by money managers seeking to increase the value  of their clients investments.  According to his liberal left wing policy, everyone should be on a a so called "level" playing field.  There can never be such a thing  as a "level" playing field in the world of equity investing, because there is no such thing.

The result of the Attorney Generals' actions will have absolutely no impact on the performance of portfolios. What it will do is take away hope, reduce incentive and move everyone to becoming more and more of a robot.


Tuesday, February 4, 2014

WHY DOES ISRAEL HAVE TO PAY FOR LAND?

In every one of the wars between Israel and its neighbors, Israel was the one attacked.

Various Arab or Palestinian people seem  to feel that they are entitled to request compensation for land they claim they previously had rights to.  Whether true or not, it is not nearly the point.

If we go back and trace the history of nearly every country, we would find that land had originally belonged to other people.  No one talks about every other country paying back historical owners of their land, only Israel is expected to act differently.



Tuesday, January 28, 2014

THOMAS PERKINS...THE RIGHT TO SPEAK YOUR MIND...

For twenty years I have read almost everything I can find on the history of Germany and its people.  There are no words to describe World War II and the Holocaust.  Words like horror, terror , Apocalypse, torture, cruelty, abomination and whatever you can think of cannot represent one grain of sand in the atrocity of the Nazi regime.

Albeit, that does not take away from a person's right to compare the holocaust to other human behaviors.  Whenever a minority group by race, religion, sex, economic standing, disability, education level or any such criteria are singled out for a form of punishment, that they are not given a right to vote down, they may be being abused.

The first thing the Nazis did was to confiscate the possessions of the Jews.  It was only later that the physical tortures and annihilation came into being.  

A person's wealth is their personal possession.  The Democratic party has singled out what has been called in the press the top "1 percent" as almost criminal because they have more money than others do.  The truth in the matter is that progressive tax rates don't increase the standard of living of people of less wealth.  What they do is form the basis of a democratic political  policy of promises rather than real results.

It was said long ago if we really want to improve our "best of class" country to an even better place we can.  We have to add more policies that increase the well being of the largest majority of people and stop the class warfare.

For the record, Federal Express and UPS do a more efficient job than the United States Postal Service.


WHAT IS INSIDE INFORMATION...WHERE DO YOU DRAW THE LINE?

A friend of mine went to a Doctor.  She was told she had a severe cancer.  The hospital had an experimental drug for this type of cancer.  She went home, looked up the drug, found out who made it and bought the stock.  Not only that so did her family, etc.  As it so happens the drug did not work as it was thought it would and the stock eventually collapsed.  The patient died.  Did she use inside information to purchase this stock?  Should her estate be sued for her use of this "inside" information?


PRESIDENT OBAMA - MINIMUM WAGE EQUALS POPULARITY IN POLLS...

The problem with President Obama is that he knows that his proposals on minimum wage are destructive to economic activity, not constructive.  The point being he proposes them anyhow because he is not interested in true economic improvement, yet only interested in political power which can come from giving people what they think they want, even if it will do them more harm than good.

President Obama should focus his energy into improving our educational system and providing more economic incentives to people of all ages who want to further their education so they can pursue higher level jobs.

Many young people have started by earning minimum wage and then worked hard to rise in their ranks and increase their income through success in their careers and seeking further education.  That is the way the world works.  If it isn't broken, why does he insist on fixing it?


Thursday, January 23, 2014

SAC PORTFOLIO MANAGER - WHAT IS RESEARCH??

There are so many things I could write about but I don't.  Our infamous government can't get Snowden, so it goes after a young money manager who tried to make his clients money.

The subject of what represents "research"on behalf of investment management clients has not even begun to unfold.  

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

OUR UNDERACHIEVING STUDENTS IN AMERICA????

It is often reported that students in the United States underachieve on academic tests compared to a substantial proportion of the world.  This reporting hasn't sat quite right with me and I couldn't quite put my finger on why these headlines were misleading, if they were in fact statistically accurate.

Lets keep the record straight.  Let the same media report the following comparisons,  how do our mixed American nationalities compare to their home countries.

For example, lets compare our American Mexicans to Mexicans in Mexico.  Lets compare our American Germans to Germans in Germany. Lets compare American Russians to Russians in Russia.  When this is done, we will have a much more accurate picture of whether substantial portions of our media are either lazy, biased or accurate on whether in fact our children really do underachieve.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

WHAT THE FITCH (STANDARD & POORS RATING AGENCY)?!? (ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED ON 11/17/11)

Yesterday, November 16th, within five minutes the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 200 points after a negative release by the FITCH company concerning the US banking system. Our markets have dropped sharply before based on the antiquated opinions of companies like Fitch, which are no more and probably less capable than anyone of the hundreds of investment firms that provide research on other matters.

You are not going to be able to believe this but I decided to take a look at who owns the FITCH rating service, let alone its record of prediction or the qualifications of its key personnel.

Guess what? This company that drove the market down, with its less than brilliant statements, is primarily owned by a man (are you ready for this) by the name of Marc Ladreit De Lacharriere. We have no idea of what his politics are or whether he even votes in the United States... he seems to be French. Yes, that's right a Frenchman controls one of the three rating services that were approved by the SEC in 1975. That's right, 1975. Something that was sanctioned in 1975 and doesn't seem to have been updated. The whole situation is so absurd that there has to be an immediate investigation of the qualifications, historical accuracy and potential hidden agendas of the people that run these companies. The three rating agencies, in my opinion, are of little value.

There is a better way. Its simply the following...everyone that sells bonds has to release information to bondholders exactly the same as information is released to shareholders. Any money management organization that gets paid to manage bonds for others must be held accountable to do its own research and form their own opinions about the quality of bonds that they buy or sell. If the meaning of this prior comment is not clear to you, at another time I will talk about it again.

The CEO of FITCH holds a BS degree from a poorly rated college. The President of FITCH has a marketing degree from a mid level college in another country. A top managing director at FITCH has a management administration degree from a University in France.

Globalization has distorted human nature. No one would ever dream of having foreigners take control of companies like Boeing, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics. The rating companies fell off the radar.

Friday, September 27, 2013

OBAMACARE - MERIT YET TO BE WRITTEN...

Term one President Obama was elected along with a democratic Congress and Senate.  These three controlling components of the government quickly passed what is called "Obamacare".  They made use of their majority power, the Obamacare bill was several thousand pages long and I didn't read about or know anyone who had read let alone analyzed the bill.

The Democratic control legally allowed them to pass this bill.

In the midterm election the Republicans won back control of the House of Representatives along with that control, came certain rights and powers, a similar situation to President Obama's first term

If the Democrats during term one hadn't been so down right nasty and paid little heed to Republican thinking we would not be in the political squabble that we face right this minute.

Because of Republican ineptitude to articulate what really happened ,much of the blame for the stalemate is being placed incorrectly.

P.S. This blog has nothing to do with whether Obamacare is good or bad.


Wednesday, August 7, 2013

EGYPT...ANOTHER OBAMA DISASTER?? (ORIGINALLY POSTED 9/2012)

Egypt, going the wrong way...Saudi Arabia, still oppressive...Libya, chaotic...Syria, an abomination...North Korea, out of their minds..Iran, apocalyptic.   Woe to the world if atomic bombs proliferate, as their on the road to, in the Middle East.

You have to ask yourself the following question.   Is it just coincidence that the last time a United States Ambassador was killed was under the Presidency of Jimmy Carter?  Now we have lost an Ambassador under another appeasement oriented President.

During World War II it was next to impossible to bring the American electorate into an early tough stance against German expansionism.  It took the attack on Pearl Harbor to give President Roosevelt the political clout to come to the aid of Great Britain and Europe.

The issue is not so much the human suffering of World War II. The issue is that it would have been much simpler to have stopped it in its tracks more proactively with less human loss and suffering.

Wouldn't it have been better if President Obama instead of just saying "America does not denigrate other people's religions" then added that in America there is freedom of speech and we will not tolerate terror to suppress this freedom.  

Therefore we march down the same path as we did in World War II, hoping that appeasement will drench the acts of terrorism.

One is always hopeful that there is an easy path to controlling evil, unfortunately all you have to do is look around and follow the story.


Thursday, July 18, 2013

WHERE IS THE OUTRAGE???

From a recent headline from a popular website:

"Arabs Attack American Jew in Venice".


In addition to the story, there was a large picture with a sign in bright red being carried by fully garbed Muslim looking people saying "GOD BLESS HITLER".


WHERE WAS THE OUTRAGE?  There was none.

WHERE IS THE OUTRAGE???

From the Chicago Tribune today:

 "Eight Wounded in Shootings across Chicago Overnight Including Two Teenagers".  


WHERE IS THE OUTRAGE?  There is none.

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

THE REAL RACISTS!!!

Please think what you want about the following comments.  I would appreciate it if some of you would candidly tell me if the following comments are completely wrong.

We now face a group of people calling for boycotting, marching, protesting, not accepting the rules of a jury trial, etc., etc.

It takes absolutely no courage to attack Paula Deen and Zimmerman, whether they are guilty of transgressions or not, neither of these people are likely to harm the agitators or their families.

Let's see these great protectors of the  people go into Chicago and Detroit and attack the drug and gun culture that is resulting in so many deaths.  Let's see these brave agitators go where the big problems are and face the drug dealers and the thousands of guns and criminals.

They try to make themselves look like heros, but they are really politicians of the worst type; using the race card to sustain a following.


WHERE IS THE OUTRAGE??? CHICAGOLAND..

Quoted from today's Chicago Tribune;

7 shot in attacks on South, West, Southwest sides



WHERE IS THE OUTRAGE?  

Friday, July 12, 2013

ZIMMERMAN TRIAL...THERE IS NO WINNER

Why is "everybody" so interested in the Zimmerman trial?  I think I have heard about fifty explanations, some of which make sense and none of which are vital.

Trayvon Martin being dead is an abomination.  Pulling guns out in a fistfight, let along firing the gun is under most circumstances beyond the boundaries of moral and ethical law in this type of situation.

Unfortunately the Nation's obsession with the Martin-Zimmerman catastrophe totally obliterates the much more pressing issues of death by gun in cities like Chicago and Detroit.

There are hundreds of young black people being murdered in Chicago, mostly black upon black crime. Many innocent lives have been lost there also.  The sensationalized media should begin to put the same amount of time into covering these senseless killings.

Yet we as a Nation are obsessed with this one trial and the legality of murdering a young black teenager, who was unarmed and had a right to be in that neighborhood that night in Sanford, Florida.

There is no winner in the Zimmerman trial.  Trayvon is dead.  A young life lost.  George Zimmerman will never be a hero.  If he succeeds to be found not guilty it will only be due to the fact the prosecution was not able to provide an eye witness to describe what we all know occurred that night, Zimmerman shot and killed Trayvon.

The only winners here are the greedy media and cable news shows that thrive on sensationalizing senseless crimes for their own benefit.







Wednesday, July 3, 2013

PAULA DEEN - "THE TAR AND FEATHERING"

The older brother bashes the younger sibling.  The gigantic father beats the older boy to a pulp. The older boy goes to a hospital, never recovers.  Obviously the father's reaction did a lot more harm than good.

Lincoln believed that slaves should be sent to Central America.  He believed they shouldn't have a right to vote and certainly not marry with whites.  Thomas Jefferson was in favor in sending slaves out of the country and it only gets worse from here, since Emancipation didn't free many slaves when it was issued.

Today Lincoln is revered as he should be despite of his mistakes.

The "tar and feathering" of PAULA DEEN seems to be alot worse than her use of a word  many years ago, as despicable as it is.  The cowardly behavior of so many corporations will breed more resentment than it will breed enlightenment.

If Paula Deen is truly a bigot and intent on harming Negroes through word or deed, than she is not worthy of our support.  If like Lincoln, she lived through a period of her life where certain matters were not quite clear, then she is worthy of redemption.

There's an old cliche that only bullies jump on a man that is down on the ground.

P.S. How many times in recent history have famous black people bashed white people with no repercussions? What's going on??

Monday, June 17, 2013

HORRORS DON'T END...(ORIGINALLY POSTED 3/15/12)

Nothing can compare to the horrors of World War II. The Syrian people are being slaughtered by another mini "Madman". Watching the United Nations and the major powers be completely impotent, (no matter what their rational) is best described by the cliche "A Plague on both your Houses". In the 21st century, there is no excuse, none whatsoever.

Friday, June 14, 2013

SNOWDEN - THE ALL AMERICAN COWARD...

The Japanese attacked and destroyed most of our Naval Fleet at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii in 1941.  Shortly thereafter our Nation declared war on Japan and Germany.  The majority of our citizens did not want to enter into another European and Pacific War.

In 1942/43 our code breakers were able to interpret Japanese military messages.  The Japanese were planning an attack on Midway, approximately halfway between Hawaii and Japan.  The Japanese did not know we had broken their code.  If they had taken Midway, their control over the entire Pacific ocean would have been catastrophic and had a good chance of altering the outcome of the war.

The Japanese sent four aircraft carriers under the umbrella of a large supporting fleet.

Since we had broken their codes, and they didn't know it, we were able to send our last three aircraft carriers to lie in wait for the impending attack.  In spite of surprising the huge Japanese fleet, we almost lost the battle.  Our pilots were young, inexperienced and the Japanese defenses were formidable.  At the end we destroyed four Japanese aircraft carriers, an incredible feat totally due to our code breakers and valiant fighter and bomber pilots.

BUT THIS IS THE REAL STORY.  IMAGINE IF SOMEONE ON THE CODE BREAKING TEAM OR ON OUR NAVAL SHIPS DECIDED THAT THEY THOUGHT TOO MANY JAPANESE WERE GOING TO DIE BY SURPRISE ATTACK AND DECIDED TO SEEK OUT SOMEONE AT THE JAPANESE EMBASSY TO INFORM THEM OF OUR PLANS.

It's obvious we would have been dealing with a traitor.  It should also be obvious that we had to prevent this from happening again.  So our government started to monitor mail, phone calls and travel plans of those people who might be in a position to repeat treason.  Today many people would actually proclaim that privacy rights trump protection rights.

I can't think of greater gibberish, probably coming from people who have never served in the armed forces.  God Bless America.


Thursday, June 13, 2013

SNOWDEN IS A CHUMP...

There are all different kinds of mental illnesses.  They have all kinds of names, from schizophrenia,  borderline personality, sociopath, obsessive compulsive, etc.

The person who assassinated Abraham Lincoln believed in his cause.  The same for the assasinator of Kennedy, the attacker of Reagan and the numerous other attempts on other Presidents lives.

Snowden is just another form of terrorist, hiding behind his narcissistic personality and grandiose inflated ego who is probably looking to write a book, make a movie and be crowned Emperor.

If more and more people would decide that the rule of law was not to be followed whenever they believed that their illegal views took precedence over lawful procedures there would be no where to hide, the anarchy would be so pervasive.

The argument is made that if it wasn't for the brave, such as Rosa Parks, Nelson Mandela, Women Suffragettes, and Gorbachev, tyranny would prevail and necessary changes would never have taken place. But none of these people committed treason!

Many of these dilemmas could be included under the banner "the clash of absolutes".

Snowden set himself up at as the ultimate decider of the what's in the best interest of national security.  He did this against the law and I'm sure with absolutely no knowledge of the catastrophic risks the nation is facing from world wide terrorism.

It seems pretty safe to conclude that the elected government believes that extraordinary risks require extraordinary actions.  There is no question that an enormous number of problems will develop from the information gathering that the Federal Government has now undertaken.

Each of us should carefully weigh realistically which is the greater risk to our freedoms.  Privacy protection or terrorism protection.

Friday, June 7, 2013

IRS AGENTS - THE ULTIMATE CHEATERS...

When an IRS employee ends up for six nights in the Presidential Suite of a major hotel, a tipping point has been exceeded.  This is what's really happened.  We now live in a country where IRS agents have a serious conflict of interest with the taxpayers that they audit.

The IRS auditors, as they delve into everyone else's personal finances are obviously saying to themselves; the more money I get from you the more likely it is that I can stay in the Presidential Suite, or get a pay increase, or get a bag of goodies, or fly first class, or attend a fancy convention...

The Congress has not even begun to uncover the under the table payments to IRS employees.

So many people have been afraid of the tea party and some parts of their agenda and yet have been blind to the Unionized Democratic party and the left wing wannabes extracting their "pound of flesh" from what they are obviously conceiving as the private sector.

Greed, so often attached to the businessmen, has now seeped into the bloodstream of an unknown number of government employees.

Government jobs are paid for with taxes from other people.  Unionized IRS agents have now figured out how to extract taxes in order to enhance their own personal standard of living.  

Saturday, June 1, 2013

IF HEDGE FUND MANAGERS CAN'T BEAT THE S &P HOW CAN THEY TELL OTHERS HOW TO RUN THEIR BUSINESS?

8/28/89
Institutional Fund Managers and Other People’s Money
By: Shepard D. Osherow
Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Osherow Siegel Capital Corporation

There was a time when a share of a corporation’s stock was considered to be an investment in its future. As idealistic as this may sound today, it is (or was) a concept at the heart of the capitalist system. The purchase of a stock made the bearer a partial owner of that company and therefore entitled to a proportionate voice in issues brought before the shareholders. Years ago, when the market was predominately comprised of individuals who placed their own money into equities, the assumption was that whatever voting power accrued to the shareholder would logically be used to enhance the performance of the firm, (and hence the investment) over time.

In 1989, however, between 50 to 70% of all publicly traded stock was “owned” by institutions and/or invested via professional managers and arbitragers who vote with no regard for anything but immediate profit. More importantly, however, through the powers extended to the fund managers via proxy voting institutions are fast becoming a highly vocal factor in the corporate board rooms of public companies, exercising increasing control over issues ranging from their day to day operations to long-term business strategies.

What’s wrong with this picture? Plenty. Because the so-called “managers” who are exerting this influence on corporate structure and strategy are, first, not professional business managers at all but private or government employees rewarded largely for their attempts to generate increased returns over short periods of time. Secondly, these people invest (and vote) with money that actually belongs not to them, but to the wage-earners who have virtually no say in where their pension money is invested or how that investment may ultimately affect their own job security in the years to come.

The reality is that this deferred voting power could have a lasting and quite possibly detrimental effect on the very people the pension funds are supposed to benefit: the pensioners themselves.
What we are witnessing is the institutionalization of American business. It was inadvertently spawned by ERISA and Federal and legal constraints making it virtually impossible for pension funds not to take a higher price on a company under hostile or otherwise leveraged attack. This has placed unchecked power behind institutional investors to influence and undermine corporate management’s control over businesses they’re paid to run. Their understanding and utililization of this phenomenon has provided the impetus (and resources) necessary to encourage complex legal buyouts and hostile M&A arrangements among corporate raiders and aggressive financial exploiters alike. Many of these deals couldn’t happen without the supporting power institutional funds wield through proxy power.

How did this come about? By encouraging the Funds to vote and sell to the highest immediate bidder, government, legal and performance fears have focused the institutions toward short term market performance. This offers scant incentive to finding the competent business managers to lead American companies, the best of whom operate towards disciplined, long range objectives. Instead, it has become commonplace to read about takeover coalitions of institutions, bankers, and M&A speculators manipulating even successful businesses for immediate profits and huge fees. This attitude has become so pervasive through the availability of tax deductible debt we’ve come to casually accept such absurdities as Pan Am’s bid to acquire NWA, or investor groups leveraging ownership based on massive “junk bond” issues and bank loans.
Corporations which have endured withering proxy fights over the last few years are, of course, a matter of rapidly expanding public record. On many levels the investment community and major institutions specifically, have been aroused into a frenzy of so-called “shareholder” activism. This has been supplemented through mutual collaboration among the fund managers, imbuing them with make-or-break prerogative at the board room table One such cooperative pairing, forged initially during the battle for Texaco, recently surfaced again in a situation which broadly illustrates the issues at stake”.

In May of 1989, Honeywell Inc. management unsuccessfully fought an aggressive shareholder action intended to contain the company’s efforts to protect itself from hostile takeover. Spearheading the assault were two public pension funds and a group of Texas financial specialists. Together they not only succeeded in neutralizing the firm’s anti-takeover measures, they also demanded strategic changes in the firm’s approach to its business, including recommending divesture of assets and repurchase of stock.

Who, exactly, were Honeywell’s new, self-appointed business “advisors”? One was a 26 year old former takeover analyst at Goldman Sachs; another a Labor Department pension administrator who is a self-proclaimed shareholder’s rights advocate and institutional consultant. The California Public Employees Retirement System (CALPERS) and the Pennsylvania Public School Employee’s Retirement, (well acquainted through their successfully united efforts during the Texaco affair), rounded out the group. As of early May, these combined entities held 4.5% of Honeywell’s outstanding shares on behalf of their constituents. Yet their assertive action in winning the proxy fight with Honeywell management infused them with powerful leverage over the basic composition and direction of that company.

Who elected these people to this exalted and influential position? It’s certainly doubtful whether California’s public employees or Pennsylvania’s school workers even know who their fund managers are, let alone their qualifications to manage either their money or a business. Never-the-less, the “Fund Financiers” and a growing number of their contemporaries have assumed a power and authority based not on their own assets but on those of the pension contributors they are hired to serve.

What knowledge, experience and talent in their respective backgrounds qualify them to take major, long-term business decisions on behalf of a billion dollar corporation? Has any one of them actually run a multi-national business?

Does a career as a Labor Department administrator, take-over artist, or pension fund manager hone executive skills worthy of board room level influence over a company as diversified and globally significant as Honeywell? Is their “advice” good for Honeywell? Is it good for the country? (Honeywell is a leading defense contractor). More to the point, is it good for the working people whose jobs and future retirement security depend upon these decisions?

To be fair, Honeywell itself has not demonstrated strong performance of late under its existing leadership, having suffered significant losses in 1988. Yet its management is currently making a sincere effort to refocus and reposition itself against its strongest, most profitable opportunities. Whether successful or not in the end, it can be reasonably assumed their intentions are to preserve the firm as a profitable, individually managed and publicly owned entity over the long-term.

By contrast, it is difficult to imaging the moves recommended to date by the proxy group are strictly designed with the prolonged health and independence of the firm in mind. One might easily conclude, in fact, given the history of the players involved, that their objective is merely to enhance Honeywell’s viability as a takeover target.

The fundamental question in this and an escalating number of similar situations remains whether these recommendations are to the long-term benefit of the people who really made this power play possible, in this case California’s public employees and taxpayers and Pennsylvania’s educators. Were they consulted about the repercussions from a potentially dismantled Honeywell? Have they pondered over what happens to their own job security if Honeywell is forced to divest itself or divisions, subsidiaries, or manufacturing plants in California and Pennsylvania?

These are difficult, far-reaching considerations. Yet sadly, it is too frequently short-term profit that seems to drive today’s aggressive pension fund strategies. Though professing to be a “quintessential long-term investors”, the average fund officer is unlikely to be around and accountable by the time most contributors are collecting their pensions. He is apt to be far more concerned whether return on the assets he manages exceeds the markets’ this quarter or next; or, in the case of government officials, how such decisions will affect his political aspirations. It’s “bird in the hand” decision-making, built upon the realities of the business and the regulations which govern it.

As these investment professionals flex their expanding muscle and crow about their new-found clout, one must wonder---who’s looking out for the guy whose money is really on the table? How many of the funds’ beneficiaries truly reap the rewards from excess returns created by an LBO or corporate raid? Most pension plans offer fixed benefits to their participants anyway! Who, then, actually reaps the profits? The answer is obvious: It is the investment bankers, LBO/M&A specialists, corporate raiders, and pension fund manager engineering these deals that have the most to gain, along with the arbitragers and a few fortunate stock speculators.

Who loses? All of us, in some way. Jobs and careers are destroyed or displaced as mergers and/or highly leveraged firms are forced to sell off their assets to cover awesome debts, resulting in unemployment and closed factories. As taxpayers, we lose vast revenues as these firms finance themselves through debt instruments written off at public expense due to substantial interest accruals to tax free institutions. And, as a nation of producers, we suffer a debilitating corporate and investment mentality which rewards short-sighted, self-protective business thinking instead of commitment, planning, and reinvestment for the future. It is the legacy of too much power concentrated in too few hands.

Not surprisingly, this burgeoning usurpation of economic might has come under congressional scrutiny. The new Chairman of the Senate’s Budget Committee, Senator James Sasser, has taken an active interest in whether pension fund managers are prudently serving the interest of both their contributors and American industry as a whole. Even Secretary Brady of Treasury has reportedly been considering ways to encourage these managers to invest, with a more long-term view of the country. To date, however, Government is clearly nervous about the repercussions of taking serious action and risking tremors on Wall Street. Yet failure to address this issue squarely could result in a crisis on the magnitude of the savings and loan industry as we continue to officially sanction highly leveraged debt as a viable means to own and manage major businesses. Sooner or later the bill comes due, and it will be the taxpayers and true stockholders who are left holding it in the end.

Why not, instead, cut to the source of the issue? Why not ban voting entirely for institutional fund managers and arbitragers who invest other people’s money? It would compel a less proactive evaluation of investments, encouraging analysis based on real earning power over time rather than how they might be manipulated for quick gains. Secondly, eliminating proxies should help curb abuse of shareholder power for the benefit of risky LBO’s offering dubious benefit to employees and shareholders alike. Finally, if there is an issue of critical importance to pension fund shareholders, it will be the obligation of both the fund overseer and corporate management to marshal the vote directly. This means, of course, devising an efficient method of polling fund constituents on the virtues of whatever issue(s) are at hand. No small consideration, certainly, but hardly impossible given the agility of electronic communication today.

Concurrently, it is also time to review the rules of ERISA, with due consideration given to ways to stimulate long-term investing. Perhaps if pension managers’ incomes were tied to five and ten-year annuity payouts, based on their fund’s performance over that period, we might witness more attention paid to the broader implications behind institutional “macro-investments”. The shareholder can thus retain some control over his own benefit program through direct voting, while the pension manager can focus on that which he is presumably best equipped to do: manage investment allocations for long-term safety and growth.

Business as a whole would benefit, as well. Such natural obstacles to amassing vast proxy leverage might gradually impede the near desperate “urge to merge” afflicting corporate America today. Despite the jargon of Wall Street’s players, sound investing for the future of one’s business or personal life is not a game. Virtually every LBO or M&A deal arranged behind backroom doors eventually affects the lives of hundreds, even thousands of people whose opinions were never consulted.

Exposure to the facts and possible repercussions of a highly leveraged takeover might give shareholders pause before opting for the easy, short-term gain. Perhaps an aware constituency will respond as the Northwest Airlines pilots did to the financial harpies hovering over NWA Inc. In a national ad in the Wall Street Journal they warned: “We will not willingly place our future in the hands of an unknown party whose highly-leveraged acquisition plans can only be financed by the breakup value of all or part of this corporation”.

This frequently buffeted group is all too aware of the consequences of Wall Street gamesmanship. They’ve learned the hard way about leaving their fate in the hands of a few financial quick-turn artists. Similarly, as long as the public remains apathetic about its investment rights, it will be left to the few to assume authority and stir the pot at their discretion…and for their benefit.

If “shareholders’ rights” is to be truly meaningful and representative issue, it must be made applicable to the actual shareholders themselves. It should refer to their right to vote as they invest, rather than as a cover for blatant corporate extortion by a select few. It is time we expose the ironies at play here and uphold the principles upon which our nation and its commercial enterprise system were founded. When it’s other people’s money at stake, those other people ought to have the right to vote their choice!

Monday, April 22, 2013

UNIVERSALISM VERSUS REALITY

This blog may seem like it's about religion, it's really not meant to be. I prefer to think it's really about politics.  So review this one in your mind after you've read the whole thing.

It's pretty well accepted that there has been antisemitism against the Jews in European countries. In one period, from the late 1700's to the mid 1800's, there was a decline in the antisemitism. Although living isolated lives, Jews were pretty much allowed to assimilate into society in general.  After the mid 1800's antisemitism  flared up again. Certain Jews decided on different methods of dealing with the antisemitism.

One of the ways was to assimilate, another way was to move towards the West and yet another way was to become even further isolated from the general community.

Jews lived primarily in ghetto type areas between the Polish Austrian corridor and into Russia, three, four five six million of them,   The return of antisemitism made it apparent to many that the traditional Jew was not easily going to be able to assimilate into European society.  Following a more orthodox route just made the antisemitism worse. Therefore several millions of the Jews that lived by Rabbinic Talmudic law instead of traditional government law moved West.

Changing their names, changing their clothes, attempting to assimilate did little to accelerate their integration into European society.  Since they weren't going to be easily accepted as Jews there developed the concept of Zionism.  Jews should live in a place where you could be Jewish ultimately resolving into the creation of the Jewish nation state.

We live in a world where China, Russia, India, United States, North Korea, Pakistan, Britain, France, etc. have atomic weapons.  Some series of circumstances has allowed this to be the acceptable norm.

In France a law has been passed that Muslims cannot wear their traditional clothing.  In England, Muslims have been attempting to live, some may say by overly influencing British society, in any case not really integrating into the system.  Imagine a large number of Muslim men and women walking around the United States compared to just a large amount of people,  What is it about the large Muslim walking people that could attract all the negative reaction?

As the Jew could not find equal acceptability in Europe, there is no question that the Muslim finds integration, especially in Muslim clothing, especially difficult anywhere but in a Muslim country.

So what we are really saying is if you come here or there, you by in large become like us.  We are not going to become like you, you are going to become like us, otherwise stay where you were.

This flies in the face of logic.  The entire concept of the European Union is no borders, no passports, a common currency and court system and the universality of man, but in practice the nations have not accepted the universal paradigm facing a billion Muslims.

The problem with Israel is not that its a Jewish country, it's that it is a secular country.

The Muslims in general are not interested in a universal world.  The Ayatollah is interested that the Mahdee for Islam appear to reset the mistakes of Judaism and Christianity.  Israel is a threat because it really doesn't want to be religious, it wants to be universal and secular.  Many Americans want to be Judeo-Christians and Europeans seem to want to be everything but Muslim.

So as the Jews, since they really could not integrate, went west and west and west.  The Muslims, being of so many people, don't have many reasons to retreat.  Unfortunately we have very little reason to deny them what they really want and stand on a thin thread of power politics destined to retreat unless the other powers of the world line up in unison once and for all against nuclear proliferation and terrrorism, no matter what has to be done to prevent it.   

Monday, April 1, 2013

GUNS AND GANGS...CHICAGO'S LEGACY? (ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 2/22/13)

THE COUNTRY WILL ARM MORE AND MORE UNTIL THE TRUTH IS TOLD...TODAY'S HEADLIINES FROM NBC CHICAGO...HUNDREDS OF TEENS MOB PEDESTRIANS IN THE LOOP

Here is the link:

http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/Hundreds-of-Teens-Mob-Pedestrians-in-the-Loop-200755191.html200755191.html


Rahm Emanuel, the former Chief of Staff for the Obama administration was elected Mayor of
Chicago.  One of his major campaign pledges was to enforce gun control more strictly.

What has Emanuel really done to clean up this town?  Since his election the murder rate and crime in Chicago has become front page news and he has been ineffective in confronting the gangs and the criminal element in the minority population.

Vice President Biden decides to visit Newton Connecticut to discuss gun control.  Why doesn't he go to Chicago, the town where gun violence is out of control, and discuss his agenda.

This is typical for members of the Obama administration.  Significant problems like guns, unemployment and the Middle East get lots of rhetoric.  Judge for yourself whether they get results.

They travel to a small town in Connecticut to speak on gun control but avoid confronting the urban areas and people responsible for a disproportionate amount of gun related murders and crimes...




Friday, March 8, 2013

ALLY FINANCIAL - ORIGINALLY POSTED 2/24/12

You think we would have learned our lesson.  Every time I turned around I saw this ad for Ally Bank promising consumers all kinds of wonderful benefits.  Upon a quick look it turned out that Ally was nothing more than part of the whole Obama thoughtless financing of questionable companies.  I now read that Ally Financial is hiring a turnaround specialist, probably at huge fees.

Did you ever notice all the ads on TV with disclaimers of one sort or another in letters that are so small they can hardly be seen and certainly can't be read?  So much for change and transparency under this Presidential Administration.  

Saturday, March 2, 2013

ANTI-GROWTH POLICY...DESTRUCTIVE...SEQUESTER MEANINGLESS(ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 7/11/11)

There is so much talk about the deficit. Most of it is just plain wrong.

The deficits the Federal government was having almost every year going back to 1975 were generally manageable. Unfortunately, between 2008 and 2009 the federal income tax receipts dropped $400 Billion dollars. As a response, spending increased almost $1 Trillion dollars in order to stop a slide into depression. The policy has succeeded. Unfortunately the total deficit then became $1.4 Trillion dollars. There really wasn’t a significant deficit problem until the housing and financial crisis of 2008. That’s the first matter.

The second matter is all the talk about Medicare and Medicaid is total nonsense. The facts are that about 50 percent of all medical care expenses go to people 65 and over. EITHER WE WANT TO TAKE CARE OF THESE PEOPLE OR WE DON’T. Furthermore, most of the payments to take care of these people 65 and over go to pay for labor. Do you really think that labor costs are not going to rise and do you also think we aren’t going to take care of the people 65 and over? Well we are going to take care of the people 65 and over and labor costs are not really going to decline.

On the Medicaid end with younger people we take care of the indigent and the disabled. Yes, there are some crooks and cheats. AGAIN THE QUESTION IS DO WE AS A NATION WANT TO TAKE CARE OF THE INDIGENT AND DISABLED THAT ARE NOT CROOKS AND CHEATS OR DON'T WE? Or do we just want to tighten the procedures for those that really need help.

I don’t know what the “Tea Party” stands for and I’m basically a Republican. Unless you want Disney running our national parks and want to rely on Boeing to run the NASA program we better face up to the fact that government is here to stay. Most of the expenses are fixed and no matter what your political viewpoint, probably necessary.

The problem is we are destructive of our own national wealth. We let corporate executives who cheat assume practically no liability for mismanagement. We let our unions destroy major industries by not finding a way to adjust wages when competitive forces require it.

There is only one way out of this. Increase corporate and personal tax receipts by growth and incentive not by creating a “rich against poor” environment.

Thursday, February 28, 2013

SEQUESTER - FISCAL CLIFF...IT'S ALL THE SAME (ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 11/30/12)

Economic policy is geared towards controlling inflation during strong periods and controlling unemployment during weak periods.

The current "mania" over the fiscal cliff is a equivalent to the "mania" that occurred during the housing crisis.

It became the common wisdom and popular delusion that the price of residential real estate would rise in a straight line forever.  Obviously this was a delusion.  The delusion became so strong that people were allowed to borrow from banks the delusional paper profits that existed on their homes.  There was no regard for whether the personal income of the borrowers was rising enough to ever pay back the exaggerated mortgages.

Somehow or other a delusion has been created that it's okay to cut back on government deficits even when there is significant slack in the economy, little or no inflation, and unemployment well above the reported figures.

Therefore the politicians risk accepting an obviously incorrect economic policy for the current environment.  They have convinced a significant percentage of the population that the deficit is bad, no matter what economic conditions call for.  This is the same as being convinced that the price of houses would rise rapidly forever.

The Republican line of focusing on the deficit is the wrong policy at the moment.  Borrowing against an inflated house, at the wrong time, is the same as focusing on the deficit control at the wrong time.

There is a second delusional element that has come into the mainstream at exactly the wrong time. This combines with delusion number one, deficit reduction 2013.  Attempting to raise taxes for anyone while the economy is in a marginal state, is incorrect economic policy, as bad or worse than the prior discussion on deficit control.

We now face a government, on both sides, that have dug themselves into policies that are similar to the loaning against hyper inflated houses with risks that are clearly unknown.  Federal taxes have to be  paid by everyone and the government has to lead the way dynamically to modernize this country.  

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

HOUSING BUBBLE VS. GOLD BUBBLE (ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED SEPTEMBER 2010)

Two sides to gold - bullish and bearish - for those of us that still own gold it's important to be aware of both. You then stake the claim and hope you are right...

A friend of mine bought a home for $300,000 ten years ago. By 2007, the price of similar homes in their neighborhood had tripled in value.

During the period when the price of housing was rising so rapidly, banks were criticized for collecting deposits in one impoverished area of the country and lending it out in other more prosperous regions. The quality of the loans was not a factor, the equitable distribution of loans seemed more important. People all over the country were ecstatic over their increase of wealth through home ownership.

The government, in spite of everything, had created Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac and everything possible to increase home ownership. Practically no one was telling homeowners to liquidate their homes. Construction of homes was booming, millions of people were employed in the sector and no one dared to stop this lucrative bubble.

When the house I mentioned above was purchased in 1999, it would have taken approximately 1000 ounces of gold to pay for the home. Today, it would take only 250 ounces of gold to buy the same $300,000 house. Housing prices have “crashed” and gold has soared. In effect, gold has gone from $350 per ounce in 1999 to $1300 per ounce today.

Gold is basically a useless commodity. The price is a “bubble” that may sustain itself forever and ever, but it is a bubble. You can’t eat gold, it’s hard to carry, it earns you no money and its industrial uses are limited. Again, no one dares to tell people to sell their gold even though you can now buy it in vending machines. No one would even think of telling the mining industry to stop the production of gold, for fear of destroying yet another industry that is the primary source of employment and revenues in many struggling countries. I think we are all aware of the macro reasons that are being suggested to support current gold prices.

Keynes said that in the end investing is nothing more than a game of musical chairs and that when the music stops; we don’t want to be the ones without a chair. We still own gold. The late removal of hedges should finally allow the gold mining companies to achieve significant earnings increases. When interest rates normalize, gold prices will fall substantially. In the meantime, the music continues to play...Stay tuned.

Friday, February 8, 2013

DELL...A CARD FROM THE BOTTOM OF THE DECK?

In my 55 years in the investment business I would be hard pressed find a bigger boondoggle than the Dell situation.  Dell should be capable of paying shareholders a $5 dividend from their excess cash and earning power.  That action would probably reduce the price of Dell's stock to about $8 a share.

The $8 a share stock would be earning somewhere around $1.30 to $1.60 a share. This would enable them to pay as much .70 or .80 cents a share annual dividend, yielding close to 10%.

Whatever savings Mr. Dell plans to make after the company is private would be welcomed by shareholders while it is public and should add further to earnings.

The idea that those actions can't be taken because Dell is a  public company borders on the absurd, and seems to be an attempt to confuse smaller shareholders.

Obviously there are risks in the fundamentals of the PC industry, but do not deceive yourself.  It is totally illogical to think that Mr. Dell would put his shares into the new company plus almost 1 billion dollars on top of the leverage created, if he didn't expect a hefty return.

Give us a break Mr. Dell...investors aren't that stupid.

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

US GOVERNMENT VS. STANDARD AND POORS...

The implications of the government lawsuit against Standard and Poors will have ramifications far beyond the simple claims which are being made.  Over time, this case will rock the Democratic party to its core and bring the entire process of government under a black dark cloud.  Stay tuned...

Monday, February 4, 2013

PAY BACK TIME FOR THE STANDARD AND POORS RATING AGENCY...(ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED JUNE 2012)

There can be no doubt that Franklin Roosevelt was an immensely impressive human being.  His ability to bring an extremely divided nation through the depression years and through a devastating World War II is beyond the conceptual powers of most of us mortals.  He was a great man whether you believed in some of his policies or not. 
Many of his economic views were concerned with what human beings were "entitled" to.  Entitlement had to be paid for.  An elaborate system of taxation on almost every level of society was put into place.  Medicare tax, Medicaid tax, Social Security Tax, Property Tax...TAX,TAX, TAX.

Along the way a lot of little things happened.  One of those little things was the government approving three bond rating services, Standard and Poors, Moodys and Fitch.

Here is the point.  Over the years, common sense would tell you that the agencies saw the eroding financial stability of many states, cities, etc.  It became absolutely impossible for the agencies to lower the ratings.  It was tacitly understood that the taxing power of municipalities would cover the revenue needs of these entities.  It didn't matter if the quality of the revenue streams were eroding and that the demands of labor, supported by liberal politicians, was raising costs as the ability to tax was diminishing. 

The agencies had to know that if they lowered ratings, in accordance with the financial flows of the municipal agencies, the interest cost of raising money would have been higher and higher.  So the concept was created that it didn't matter if the financial stability of municipalities was eroding because in the end, the federal government would bail out the municipalities.  Therefore, why lower the municipality ratings as they were as good as the federal government was conceptually.  Arguably, even though municipalities were separate from the federal government for financing, that was really a mirage.  The rating agencies understood it, the municipalities understood it, and the federal government understood it.  Above all else, labor unions understood it so why not just unionize the government workforce and in the end the federal government will be responsible.

Along comes the housing crises of 2008 and the federal government starts to look for scape goats and finds that the rating agencies seem to have overrated lots of municipal securities. 

Okay, so then some congressional committee starts to investigate the rating agencies for incompetence. This looks good to the public and guess what...the rating agencies say "Wait a minute...they are blaming us for helping them keep their interest costs down.  We just did what they wanted us to do." Okay what to do.  Guess what. The rating agencies decide to go honest. They reduce the credit rating of the federal government for the first time ever.  In effect they were saying as in a famous Jack Nicholson movie, "You don't want to hear the truth. You can't take it." 

The only saving grace is that as things stands today, the federal government can print money forever.  Consequently, it can pay its bills in dollars that are worth something, be they municipal or federal obligations. 

People in the government are always changing, no one has to take responsibility,  and they can take all their time blaming everyone else when something goes wrong.

There is no doubt Roosevelt was a great man.  But to this day the crash of colliding viewpoints hasn't figured out how to truly raise the standard of living.

More on this subject will follow...

Friday, February 1, 2013

OPPORTUNITY- YES EASY- NO (ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED IN DECEMBER 2010)

Most professional investors use pretty much the same approach to investing assets. They try to ignore the trend of the market, don’t waste their time on economic forecasts and overweight a sector, industry or company plus or minus a few percentage points.
It’s been well shown by the performance of index funds that outperforming the markets, year in and year out, is one heck of a difficult task.

Without going into detail, I’ll summarize the market in one quick sentence. There is ample opportunity to win if you are either smart or lucky. The key word is opportunity.

Over the years I have successfully invested my own money by buying securities, both for trading and investing. I’m happy to share with you, for whatever it’s worth, some of my more rudimentary thoughts about making money.

1. KNOW YOUR RISK LEVEL

2. KNOW IF IT’S JUST A GAMBLE

3. NOT BELIEVING THE TREND OF CURRENT EARNINGS PER SHARE IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN VALUE

4. NOT BEING ABLE TO COMPARE FEELINGS OF VALUE VS. FEELINGS OF THE CHART

5. POSITIONS CAN BE SMALL

6. BUILD ON SUCCESS

7. ONLY DO WHAT YOU THINK IS RIGHT

8. NOT ACTING ON A THOUGHT WHEN YOU HAVE IT

9. LACK OF PATIENCE

10. NOT WAITING FOR A THOUGHT TO COME

11. ACT ON FEELINGS WHEN YOU GET THEM

12. KNOW WHY YOU ARE DOING SOMETHING

13. GAMBLE A BIT MORE

14. LOOK AT ALL DIFFERENT CHARTS

15. CORRECT MISTAKES – RIGHT OR WRONG

16. WORK A LITTLE HARDER ON THE FACTS

17. YOU MUST ACT IN ORDER TO SUCCEED

18. IF YOU CAN, RATE YOUR FEELINGS – WEAK, MEDIUM, STRONG

19. IF THINGS DON’T GO WELL, WRITE DOWN WHY NOT

20. VALUE IS NOT THE STORY, TREND AND DIRECTION OF EARNINGS IS


21. WHEN THE CHARTS SEEM TO READ A DIFFERENT STORY FOLLOW THE ONE WHICH IS MOST LONG TERM
22. YOU DON’T HAVE TO SELL THE WHOLE POSITION

23. SMALL GAINS DON’T MAKE YOU RICH


24. WHEN YOU MAKE A LOT OF MONEY TOO FAST, TAKE PROFITS

25. WHEN A COMPANY MAKES THEIR NUMBERS AND ACHIEVES THEIR GOALS YOU REWARD THEM BY STAYING BY THEIR SIDE, WHEN THEY FAIL YOU LESSEN POSITION

26. TRIPLING YOUR MONEY MEANS NOTHING IF IT'S ONLY SMALL PERCENTAGE OF YOUR ASSETS
27. ONLY TOTAL RETURN COUNTS

Friday, December 14, 2012

AUTHORITY WITHOUT RESPONSIBILITY...

Wall Street money managers report their performance regularly.  Public companies report their performance regularly.  Airlines file endless reports on maintenance and safety.  The EPA monitors pollution standards.  The Nuclear regulatory board studies the performance of nuclear reactors.

Isn't it time to study the performance of welfare recipients.  Let the government go back five, ten, fifteen and twenty years.  Let it then compile who the recipients were and where they are in life now.  What is their income, what is their education level, etc.

Just as so many of us are monitored by form or another of performance standards, so should be the welfare system.

After the welfare statistics are compiled, a real case for the long term value of government welfare will begin to emerge.

So many studies have been done on the outcome of high level college educations.  It would be beneficial to the country to do the same type of studies on the other end of the spectrum.  Then if the current system isn't producing at least average results newer methods should be examined.


Friday, December 7, 2012

THE FISCAL CLIFF IS NOT THE CIVIL WAR....

During the Civil War there were less than 30 million people in the Country.  During the Civil War there were over one million dead and wounded.  Unbelievably this would be the equivalent of over 10 million on today's 300 million plus population.  Imagine the enormity and agony of that War.

If you saw the movie "Lincoln" there was a scene in which Lincoln was given the opportunity by the Confederacy to end the War.  The political and emotional pressure was on Lincoln to end the bloodshed without a resolution of the slavery issue and the maintenance of the United States as a union without slavery.

Lincoln believed the issue of the Union and slavery and the thirteenth amendment were more important than the immediate cessation of hostilities.  This was the hierarchy of Lincoln's convictions.  The death toll was put aside until the surrender of Lee at the Battle of Appomattox.

This is not a blog about the Civil War, Lincoln's credos, or the rightness or wrongness of Presidential convictions.  It is just about what issues Presidents are willing to draw the line on and stake their place in history upon.

"Today we are faced" with problems of much less severity than what would have been the equivalent of 10 million casualties today.

We are faced with something that has become known as the fiscal cliff, the fiscal war if you will.  I searched the Internet and had difficulty finding who invented the term fiscal cliff.  There is no cliff and both the tax increases proposed and spending allusions are not significant in any case.  The spending proposals are spread over so many years that absolutely no one knows if they will have any impact at all.  The idea that a tax increase on the top earners will help economic activity is one hundred percent false.  For every dollar that is taxed away from anyone, rich or whatever, they have one dollar less to spend on food, clothing and everything else.

During the Civil War Lincoln was fighting for the Union and the dignity of all human beings.  The position of the Republican party to not raise taxes is strictly a question of who gets to spend the increased taxes, the persons that made the money or the politicians.

Unfortunately the social desire by some for more and more so called safety nets will ultimately make it impossible for safety nets to be paid for at all.

President Obama knows all the above.  In the end will he make choices that actually lead us to an increased standard of living or will he sacrifice results for politics?  The exact opposite of Lincoln.  

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

INSIDE INFORMATION OR GOOD RESEARCH METHODS...

Grab the phone.  You grab the other phone.  You get that one.  Syntex collapsed 50% in a short period of time due to rumors of cancer being caused by their birth control pill.  On the phone was three doctors.  How many of your patients are getting cancer we asked.  All three doctors didn't seem to know what we were talking about since none of their patients were getting cancer.  They further stated they were just doing some preliminary tests and if there are crazy rumors circulating, they didn't know anything about it.

Our brokers had been recommending Syntex to clients.  We were in a state of shock as the stock collapsed and we put out the word "It seems that the Syntex rumors may be false - we are going to bet that they are but there are no guarantees.  We are going to buy more but that's all we can tell you".

Did we use inside information?  In today's world, some government officials would think we did.  But what in the world is research if you don't try to learn more about the companies you are interested in than other people have learned about the same company?  How do you draw the line between thorough aggressive research and guaranteed inside information?   I am absolutely certain that more so called "hot" stories both negative and positive, are right as often as they are wrong.

The SEC is busy indicting specific individuals for alleged use of inside information.  That might be a good idea or a bad idea, but to me it makes very little sense.  For every investor that wins with an inside tip one loses - the net effect on the market is really zero.

Why doesn't the SEC randomly pick 25 investigators.  Then pick 25 brokerage offices around the country.  Then subpoena the records of 10 brokers in each brokerage firm they select.  Then call each of the selected brokers into a room and ask them what they know about the companies that they had been recommending to their clients.  Having done this in my own mysterious way in the past, I am certain they would discover that most brokers had little to any specific knowledge on the companies they were recommending.

Now we have cases where money managers, who are paid a lot of money, break their backs trying to ferret out information for their clients so that they have a chance of achieving a positive return on their investments.  If inside information was of any particular value, there would be all sorts of money managers achieving returns far in excess of the overall averages.  If the government wants to claim that the only thing money managers should do is read public reports, then there really won't be any need for research at all. Any investor could attempt to ferret out the same information as the money manager.

I guess we will get to the point where someone invents something and is required to expose their invention to the marketplace before they even make the product.  Some investigating agency could claim they had "inside invention" because the inventor spoke to a scientist, who was sitting in his rowboat in Fiji and mentioned a molecule he felt may have some promise, and the inventor used the molecule.

If Jim Cramer gets some information from somewhere and recommends it on his program, and I don't happen to watch his show because I don't subscribe to his station, did his viewers have inside information compared to me?  There is a reason why our standard of living doesn't increase anymore.  That's why sunshine turns into stormy days.

A PARTICULAR MONEY MANAGER TOOK A LARGE STAKE IN THIS COMPANY KNOWING THEY WERE GOING TO THE MANAGEMENT FOR THE PURPOSE OF INCREASING SHAREHOLDER VALUE.  THE  INVESTORS WHO SOLD THEIR SHARES TO THE MONEY MANAGER DID NOT HAVE THIS INFORMATION WHEN THEY SOLD THEIR SHARES.  THAT'S A CLEAR CUT EXAMPLE OF INSIDE INFORMATION THAT GOES TOTALLY UNNOTICED BY THE INEXPERIENCED PEOPLE, WITH LITTLE INVESTMENT BACKGROUND, WHO HAVE BEEN AND ARE NOW INVOLVED AT THE SEC.  

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

WILL WALMART BECOME THE NEXT TWINKIES?

You can talk all you want about the give and take among the various entities that comprise the economy.

But as we ponder today's headlines one that would seem worthwhile to me is "Will Walmart become the next Twinkies?"  We have written before about how the inflexibility of union attitudes has resulted in the decline of a number of major industries from airlines, to textiles, to steel, to aluminum, to the post office, to automobile makers, etc.

Here is an approximate set of facts that never appears in the mainstream media, probably because it's above the analytical capability of most media personnel.  Walmart did approximately $450 billion dollars of sales in it's latest reported year.  Since there are approximately 3.4 billion shares outstanding, each shareholder was entitled to approximately $132 a share of sales for each share that is outstanding.

There is a second part.  Walmart had to pay for the items that it sold in its stores and then pay it's almost 2 million employees for all the things they do to run the business.  Those cash costs amounted to $423 billion or 94% of the $450 billion dollars of sales, and on a per share basis $124 of the $132 per share of sales to each shareholder. Consequently each outstanding share of Walmart generated income of $8 a share which theoretically and indirectly were assigned to a shareholder.

Now the third part.  After paying taxes and capital expenditures, each dollar of sales that Walmart generates it EARNS 1.3 PENNIES.  If you added that back into all the expenses, Walmart would have no more money than it currently has to pay for running their business.

We live in a country where the media is allowed to present union leaders and left wing professors claiming that Walmart makes billions of dollars of profits and should give large pay increases to its personnel.  As you can see, from the very simplistic analysis above, their comments are destructive, misleading and incorrect.  One day the management and shareholders will just walk away and say enough is enough.  ONE PENNY, ONE PENNY, ONE PENNY.

If you don't think you are watching the next Twinkies...Wake Up!


Thursday, November 15, 2012

THERE IS NO OTHER WAY OUT...

The only thing that has sustained the economy has been the Federal Reserve.  Up until this point, Fed Policy has been as close to 100% correct as it could have possibly been.

The Senate and the House of Representatives have been totally wrong. Until such time as their policies become appropriate, the status of our economic well being will stay diminished.

The only policies that will help us into a healthy and long term uptrend must consist of some of the following.

1. Confidence on the part of the business community.

2. Recognition by the President that you can't pay people in the middle class or any class steadily increasing wages, if corporate profits are not increasing at the same time.

3. The only way to get out of our deficit is to increase individual income, increase corporate profits, increase dividends and increase capital gains. These increases will result in a growing tax base and will allow the deficit to eventually be wiped out.

4. Avoid anything that increases taxes, reduces consumption and weakens confidence, as this will only cause the deficit to grow.

5. Government spending has to be increased by putting into place infrastructure, such as new schools, on a massive basis.

6. Tax deductions have to remain in place as long as they induce economic growth.

7. Tax rates have to stay approximately where they are.

8. The leaders of Congress and the Executive branch must stop creating an environment where "success" is not respected and rewarded but is diminished and punished through taxation and regulations.

If you don't grow the economy steadily there is a smaller and smaller pie to take from, which is an absolute recipe for diminished returns to all segments of society.  

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

OBAMA'S CLAIM - ONLY FOR THE USA IS 100% POLITICAL

As Gandhi praised Hitler (Blog dated March 2, 2012), along with Joseph Kennedy Sr., Ambassador to Germany and as Chamberlain called for "peace in our time" praising Hitler, and as actors praise Chavez, our President seems to have joined this list of infamous overrated men.

In the newspaper in New York, one of their editorial writers, a master of words, and a confused soul, likens the Prime Minister of Israel to a party boss concerned with his political power.

Think of the absurdity of this writer's views on Israel's Prime Minister.  Almost beyond belief.  On Israel's one side are eighty million people with 40% illiterate and one the lowest per capita incomes in the world, who just elected a radical President concerned about a Palestinian state, when his own country's people suffer immensely.  On its borders to the north lives Hezbollah and Hamas,  terrorist organizations.  Syria, to its west, is filling up with Iranian arms and terror.  Jordan barely hangs on by its teeth.  Libya is hardly put together.  Iraq is trying but is a mess.  North Korea seems intent on making matters worse. Iran's President sounds like Hitler reincarnated.

This newspaper writer must know that security, which is almost impossible to achieve, is what drives Netanyahu, not some stupid coalition.  That means nothing to him or his party or to Israelis, as should be obvious when anyone weighs the risks of living in Israel.  This famous newspaper editorialist probably is so concerned with his sources of information in the Middle East that he obviously has lost his right to be taken seriously on Israel's security.

As hard as we try to show an even hand in the Middle East, we will unfortunately learn over time that the radicals have their eye on the oil.  Israel cannot sway to the appeasers and weaken its position any further.  If atomic weapons proliferate, how can anyone expect to live in peace.  

OIL IS THE ONLY ISSUE - NOTHING ELSE...(Originally Published 9/14/12)

Look at a desk.  Put a dot on it.  That's the land size of Israel in comparison to the land size of other Middle Eastern countries.  Can you really logically believe that this tiny little place is so repugnant to Muslims just because the inhabitants of Israel are significantly Jewish? Also the Jewish population is Israel is mainly secular, not religious.

The entire issue is over the control of oil.  As long as the United States continues to be so dependent on Middle Eastern oil, Israel will be the scapegoat.

Israel acts as a beacon of protection against the tyrants, terrorists and power seekers who would use oil as the ultimate power source.  It's not Jews that are the problem, it's the ultimate euphoria of being able to have world domination through the oil.  Until we get off the oil addiction, (the sooner the better), there is no hope for real stability, ever, in the Middle East. 

I am reposting a blog that we wrote in 2011 about how to break the oil addiction. 

 

Shepard Osherow. All Rights Reserved