Tuesday, December 27, 2011

ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF WHAT'S WRONG...

There are 600,000 people who are not 1 percenters working at Citicorp and Bank of America. 600,000 People!

The Obama administration recently prided itself on collecting a $335 million dollar fine from Bank of America for the egregious activities of Countrywide Mortgage well before the bank acquired Countrywide.

The bank now has $335 million dollar less to pay its employees, build up its reserves, invest in plant and equipment and make loans.

The few executives responsible for the Countrywide fiasco have long ago walked away, many of them extremely wealthy.

The headlines in the media about the great punishment of Bank of America is a complete farce. It's only value is to lie to the public. It sounds good to get that "big bad" bank. The poor 600,000 employed by Bank of America and Citicorp don't count because they don't have a voice.

The dynamics of the letting 600,000 employees bear the brunt of Barney Frank's hypocrisy does not speak well for the character of our nation.

In theory, lets fine the government every time they make a bad decision, starting with Solyndra.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

STOP WORRYING ABOUT GLOBILIZATION...START WORRYING ABOUT OURSELF

A while back we wrote about the effect of the tablet on PC sales. At that time we didn't fully grasp the competitive impact. It's real, it will continue.

Meg Whitman is a smart woman. She was recently appointed CEO of Hewlett Packard. Traditionally, a new management of a historically great company, with a low share price based on historical financial relationships, would be a good place to consider investing. Over time, many financial assets that go out of favor return to favor at another time. But some do not. They go down, they stay down. Looking backwards to their prior greatness becomes a loser's game.

I took a quick look at the recent financials on Hewlett. I hadn't done it in awhile. What I found was a company with about $127 billion in revenues and costs which used up $115 billion of the $127 billion in revenues. That means that before taxes, interest and depreciation, Hewlett was making about $.10 per dollar of revenue. Now imagine this, you have to sell $130 billion dollars of goods, have a couple of hundred thousand employees and end up with what is low return on a dollar of sales.

But that's not the real story. The real story is much more dramatic. The implications are scary.

Way back when, a company like Hewlett Packard went to find manufacturers overseas for its products. It significantly dictated the terms as the foreign manufacturers needed business. Now, whether we like it or not, the negotiating power has shifted. It's as if the foreign manufacturers say "We'll make the product for you, we'll let you sell it under your name, but most of the money from the sale of the products will go to us". There are only so many places an American company can go to offset this type of negotiating tactic. It's complicated to change manufacturers. The net result is that power, in terms of trade, has shifted more than most of us realize. Obviously we now know what CEO Meg Whitman has to do, drive the cost of sales down .

Fifty years ago, the President of US Steel, when I asked him about imports said, "We are US Steel, we never lose".

Friday, November 18, 2011

WORDS THAT DESTROY RATHER THAN HEAL...PENN STATE VS. SMU

We sent our daughter to a Jewish religious school. One day my former wife and I came across a teacher beating up a ten year old child outside the classroom. We intervened but were told to mind our business. We were large contributors to the religious school. We went to see the Chairman of the Board to register our disgust. He was a much larger contributor than we were. We were actually told that we didn't know what we saw and should mind our business. We were told the reputation of the school was more important than the event. We went to see the Rabbi, but the Rabbi could be fired by the Chairman of the Board. He told us the kid probably needed discipline. We didn't go to the police.

A Cantor, at one of the most famous Jewish temples in New York City, was once arrested for child molestation. I don't know what happened to him but I'm pretty sure he was found guilty.

A few years later a Senior Rabbi at the same Temple was arrested for soliciting an underage child for sex.

My wife and I recently found an article about a Lutheran preacher who was arrested for solicitation for underage sex.

What's occurred with the Priests in the Catholic church is arguably among the most atrocious events in the history of this important institution.

The myriads of scandals in the Presbyterian and Baptist religious orders have made significant headlines over the years.

The point of this discourse really concerns an editorial by a well known left wing writer in a well known New York newspaper. I quote from this editorial:

"In words and deeds they have shown that their priorities are askew. After its death sentence SMU football (other crimes) never regained its previous prominence. But it would be okay if it wound up permanently diminished like SMU". (i.e. Penn State)

The writer in his egotistical wrath actually used the words "after its death sentence."

In accordance with this kind of thinking the mentioned Jewish temples, the Catholic Church, the Lutheran orders and the other religious orders would also be accorded a "death sentence" according to his way of thinking.

Human nature, being what it seems to be, dictates that in every large institution there will be transgressions by the criminal, psychopathic, borderline, narcissistic, weak minded personnel. With this writers kind of thinking, every city would be closed down because within it you would find criminal elements.

The criminal actions of a few individuals within a large institution or group should not constitute a "death sentence" for the entire institution or group. In all fairness, if that was the case, the abuses that have occurred in the large religious institutions would have also commanded enforcement of some type of "death sentence" to them also and society in general.



Mr. Sandusky maybe guilty of horrible crimes, but courage to step forward in a judicial process that would take ten years to convict him is naive especially when the perpetrator has power.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

COURAGE IS A RARE COMMODITY...

The government fines an airline for keeping people in a plane for too long during a storm. The government fines the airline almost $1 million dollars. Now the airline has $1 million dollars less for raises, fuel purchases, airplane maintenance, etc. The airline will simply transfer this expense back to the consumer in the form of higher ticket prices.

Picture this plane, safety is first, therefore in trying to avoid a storm they get sent to a new landing field. When the plane gets there its storming. The weather forecast says it will clear in an hour. The airport tells the unexpected planes, "hey guys, clearing in an hour", but the weather forecast changes and the storm continues. So many planes have unexpectedly overloaded the airport that all the gates are filled. Its tough to move the planes out of the gates because there is nowhere to put them. The storm makes its dangerous to move the planes in the first place. There aren't any extra employees at the airport and certainly no highly trained ones. Several more planes arrive because all the other airports are closed. The pilot has rightfully upset passengers on the plane. These passengers have connections to make to get to where they were going in the first place. They are held up by the storm and throughout the whole country planes are waiting for passengers that never show up. Who was responsible to move a plane from the gate during the storm? Who would be responsible if a gate was cleared and a serious accident occurred by moving planes under hazardous conditions?

Some people think it was the airport that should have paid the fine. The airports are concrete and wires. The fact of the matter is that there is no system in place where the staff is large enough and trained enough to accommodate our airline system during unexpected hazardous weather conditions.

Fining the airlines, which is a paper entity, is another example of political expediency before honesty. There will always be a set of conditions where we can't get people off planes which might be a greater risk than leaving them on them.

So again instead of telling people the truth that no matter how hard we try, individual people, usually with limited authority and responsibility, will generally not take the risk of some extraordinary action plan that could jeopardize their jobs.

Monday, October 17, 2011

MORE LIES, MORE LIES AND MORE LIES...

The left wing socialist writer at that New York newspaper is so wrong about so much that it's just plain sad. On Monday, October 17th, he failed to recognize that one of the major reasons for the slow down in income growth from 1980 to 2007 was inflexible wages in our major manufacturing base.

We lost a major share of the auto, steel, textile, clothing and computer manufacturing business to countries with much cheaper labor.

Good, bad or indifferent, the millions of people employed by banks, pension funds, mutual fund companies, insurance companies, equipment leasing companies, lawyers, accountants, secretaries, cleaning people, and everybody else, was almost forced upon us by fear and ignorance and actually saved the economy from severe deprivation and depression.

It was government policy to provide homes for everyone.

THE ATALANTA SOSNOFF STORY WILL BE COMING SOON.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

LAZY OCCUPIERS VERSUS REAL PROBLEMS

The rain didn't come. The country was already suffering. The crops withered and then withered some more. The land, the asset of productivity, became baron, and still the rain didn't come. To a great extent we were an agrarian society. The several hundred thousand tenant farmers, through generations of sweat but at the same time life, were obliterated by the drought. And so with no education, no money, no medical care, no unemployment benefits and really no food, they were ejected from the land by owners and circumstance.

They packed their bags and went into cars and trucks that would hardly move. They headed west, for what was thought of as a "place of plenty".

There were no real jobs, it was all fictitious. Some found jobs for 30 cents only to find hundreds of thousands of others willing to work for 20 cents and then 10 cents. At this point you couldn't buy food let alone anything else. The horror of the American farmer at that point of history is hard to comprehend. This was part of the Great Depression and a people without a backup plan and is the background for the classic book The Grapes of Wrath.

Obviously there are many questions, but who were these people? Who were their parents? They were farmers, they came from a farmers background. They were hard working; but their history, their struggles, their nature went from one generation to the next. Only a few had the luck or the psychological stamina to move away from the soil.

The Jews of the world have tended to be a persecuted minority for centuries. People have found that the Jewish people have dealt with the psychological trauma of Anti Semitism in different ways. Many converted, often believing that conversion would allow them to escape from discrimination. Many changed their names to non Jewish sounding names. Many chose the path of rising up to separate themselves and say "Look at me I'm successful". A good example would be Larry King whose birthname was Lawrence Harvey Zeigler.

The New York Times is a premier example of assimilating. The extent of the New York Times failure to support Jewish causes during the Holocaust belies why any Jew would ever buy this newspaper. The Roosevelt administration's complicity of not helping to save Jews from Hitler and the subsequent overwhelming support of the Jews for the Democratic party is the delusional aspect of historical victims separating fantasy from reality.

So the farmers suffered, the Jews suffered and now we see 40% unemployment in black teenagers and a black unemployment rate almost double the rest of the population.

The delusion of the blacks, as a general group, towards Obama and Democrats is the same as the Jewish delusions was towards Roosevelt and his Democratic administration.

See the farmers were left to starve, the Jews were left to die and Blacks are left to be unemployed. It is essential to recognize not as an excuse or an appeasement of any sort, but just the reality that the American attitude towards the Black community has impacted the psychology of the group. Granted some Blacks have moved beyond but many have not been able to.

The Farmers, the Jews, and the Blacks each have had historical problems impacting their behavior. For the record, there are many other groups within our society who have suffered through their own feelings of discrimination and chosen similar methods to address their situation.

But who are the Occupy Wall Street people?

Friday, September 30, 2011

A RETAILER MAKING COMPUTERS?

BLOG FIRST PUBLISHED APRIL 2011

Many months ago when I bought my first IPAD I said to my business partner, "Holy Moly-this product is going to have some huge impact on PC sales". Months have passed and I have begun to think of how many people are employed in making PCS and their ancillary equipment.


The gadget that brought down an industry and we didn't see it coming. Holy Moly???


P.S. I must be crazy. "Laugh of the Day"



Many months ago I first published the blog above about the IPAD. Now a second catalyst has caught our attention and seems to be just as destructive as the IPAD. The fact that a retailer (Amazon) is now manufacturing its own tablet is incredible. Not only does it appear that Amazon's tablet is quite a capable machine but it's also to be sold at a significant discount to its competitors. Look at what's happened to both Hewlett Packard and RIMM with their venture into the tablet business. One can only wonder what the implications are for the rest of the computer hardware industry.

At one point in time the only device used to draft written correspondence was the typewriter. With the introduction of the personal computer the days of the typewriter were limited. Will the same fate lie ahead for the manufacturers of portable computers as the competition increases and the prices decline with the perfection of the industry?

Thursday, September 22, 2011

1930 REVISITED?

While the Democrats focus on "class warfare" and the Republicans focus on spending cuts the "battle to right the ship in a storm" is being lost. (The Forgotten Man)

Both parties are focusing on the wrong battles. The Republican party is so split that it's hard to see how they can beat Obama, in spite of his huge failings.

In June 1930, as the Depression was unfolding, the Congress actually passed a tariff bill intending to protect American business from competition. Instead, there was worldwide retaliation.

A stronger dollar, at this time, under these conditions is exactly the same as the tariff bill passed in 1930.

All the above, tax increases, confidence lost, potential for stronger dollar and balanced budgets are so wrong as to make one think the country is being run by people who actually want us to go down the drain. Let's hope that President Obama has the courage to resign.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

BLOG OF THE DAY

In a recent blog we discussed the extraordinary risk to the marketplace that computerized trading is likely to cause at some unexpected time.

The recent trading loss that occurred at UBS is another example of activities that clearly shouldn't be allowed in the banking system.

Permitting banks to be in the trading business, usually conducted by young inexperienced personnel, is so dangerous to the monetary and fiscal well being of the banks, the government and individuals that there are few words to describe the risks involved.

In America we have depository insurance which would leave untold billions of depositors uninsured in the case of huge losses by traders.

The banking system should not be in the trading business with derivatives and options, etc. It is wrong, dangerous and must be stopped.

Unfortunately, when traders make money they get big bonuses, buy big apartments and consequently the huge risks are not faced unless there is a significant crises. One of these days, with these kinds of absurd activities continuing to be permitted, government policies will not be able to fix the problem fast enough. This will make the housing crises seem trivial.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

ECONOMIC MISERY CREATES HATEFUL ENVIRONMENT

To see the President of the United States cowering behind his Union supporters seems to indicate that he is certainly no George Washington where courage is concerned. For alot of different reasons I happen to think well of the Teamsters Union and its leader, but to hear him talk in terms of "war" sounds almost like a call for a fascist state. The "common man" will not cower in the face of demagogic bluster.

Friday, September 2, 2011

WHAT MADE OBAMA QUALIFIED TO BE PRESIDENT?

The poor struggle for subsistence. The middle class realizes that our manufacturing jobs have been sent far away. The rich, no matter what they say, are tired of being made scapegoats for the country's problems. The corporations, where most Americans still work, are made out to be the enemy. Banks are attacked as if they were supposed to have known what mortgages to write and what mortgages not to write. The Unions hang on to antiquated work rules. The Politicians have no creative capacity. The Tea Party, well meaning or not, advocates totally disastrous economic policies. The liberal left actually believe people are "entitled" without having to earn it. The public school system is frozen and outdated. Wasteful financial transactions are accepted as a crucial part of capitalism's strength.

You could write all the offsetting positives to the above you want, but as long as the standard of living is stagnant, you would just be plain wrong.

No jobs, no growth, no improvement...just the opposite.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

MR. BUFFETT'S OWN WORDS

On June 26, 2006, Warren Buffett, the man who wants to be the protector of society, wrote in a letter to the Board of Directors of one of the Buffett Foundations, "THE ONLY CONDITION TO THIS COMMITMENT IS THAT THE FOUNDATION MUST CONTINUE TO SATISFY LEGAL REQUIREMENTS AND QUALIFYING MY GIFT AS CHARITABLE AND NOT SUBJECT TO GIFT OR OTHER TAXES".

So here you have it ladies and gentlemen. Avoidance of taxes through legal means which would be fine if he wasn't acting as a hypocrital man in my opinion.

OPPOSITES DON'T ALWAYS ATTRACT...

Whether some people like it or not, the Keynesian economic model is a pretty realistic view of how things work or should work.

Monetary policy, no matter how easy, and fiscal stimulus have a hard time igniting sustained recovery without confidence on the part of our people.

With Obama constantly raising the tomahawk of class warfare and evil corporations, (even telling people not to go to Las Vegas), and the Tea Party advocating a totally wrong economic model that won't lead to recovery, its no wonder confidence hasn't returned. Until both sides can see the factual difference of their dialogue, the two necessary ingredients for recovery; low interest rates and confidence, won't come together. So we muddle as the politicians vie for power above all else.

Monday, August 15, 2011

"PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS"

I agree with you Mr. Buffett. We should stop coddling the Super Rich. I propose there be a 99% asset tax on those with assets over $1 billion dollars. Let's start with you. Contribute your money to the government NOW!

FAILURE OF BRAINS

The fake genius of Paul Krugman...Read most of what he says and you'll see alot of complex words, but he really is just a troublemaker in the ilk of Saul Alinsky, disguised as an intellectual. He may like hiding behind his beard, but he is just an angry man who gives teaching talent to the elite, instead of working more in the middle range schools where the students are generally much poorer.

The second paragraph of his piece in the New York Times is telling everyone who reads it we should all feel "anger" because the "influential people", which I guess he is not, are the culprits responsible for our economic crisis. Who are these influential people...I say just typical Krugman propaganda.

Stand up people, feel your "anger", sounds like the first step before advocating riots in the streets. With all the violence in the world today, why would you want to incite such "anger" in people?

You be angry, Mr. Krugman, but you probably would be better off proving the real value of your economic thoughts first. Cut the crap!

In the last paragraph Krugman's writings of August 15th in the New York Times titled the "The Texas Unmiracle", he states "when Mr. Perry presents himself as the candidate who knows how to create jobs, don't believe him".

You may not like to pray, Mr. Krugman, that's your business but why in the world should people believe you. Get it straight. You are just a Professor, of which there are many, not the "Messiah", who tells people who to believe in or not.

Monday, July 11, 2011

SOMEDAY - THE REAL DEAL

In the 1930's President Franklin Roosevelt's administration created the Social Security program. There was strong political opposition based on the argument that this program would create a socialist state,reduce people's incentive to work and to save, and thereby reduce economic activity. In order to get the Social Security Administration bill passed, Roosevelt agreed the bill would be self funded. We all know we pay from our earned income a tax towards our future social security receipts.

The Medicare and Human Services expenditures by the Government are mainly funded by charges deducted from our weekly wages.

Only a hand full of the other government budgetary expenses account for the remaining government outlays.

A significant portion of this category is defense outlays. Historically the right wing of the Republican has been pro-defense expenditures.

The fact of the matter is there have only been three years, in recent history, that have accounted for the acceleration and the rate of growth of the debt level.

We have covered this analysis before. We have tried to explain that there is absolutely no way out of this without a significant increase in personal income. That requires a very positive capital formation environment. I don't mean to be trite, but the argument about corporate jets is about as trivial as it comes since every one of them is made by Union workers and using the political bogeyman is again an attack on our own people. For politicians like President Obama, being elected seems to come first.

Let's see the government publish how many planes it uses in its non-defense fleet. You mean government can use small jets but business owners can't. As long as political manipulation outweighs honest analysis, jobs will come slowly, the country will continue to retrogress and the world wide competitive environment will slowly but surely overtake us.

Thursday, July 7, 2011

In a world full of so many social needs, I find it beyond explanation that the media has rallied behind our "First Lady" and her entourages trip to Africa.

Imagine, we have a First Lady...what in the world would make Michelle Obama a First Lady except marrying Barak. She's no First Lady, she's just Michelle Obama. I mean its almost hysterical, the "First Lady Arrives In Africa".

I was talking to a brilliant, poor, educated Ugandan. She was explaining to me that what her people needed was erasers. I said erasers, yes she said, erasers. She explained that if we get an eraser, then we have to get a pencil. She said that right now in her town in a school she recently visited, there is one eraser in the whole classroom.

You see erasers lead to pencils, pencils lead to paper, paper leads to books, books lead to teachers, and teachers lead to schools.

We are spending how much money announcing the arrival of our First Lady to meet Nelson Mandela, when what the people need is real caring rather than political hubris.

You are not going to get rid of AIDS until you face up to the promiscuous sex and the religious base which supports population growth that can't be afforded. Our First Lady arrived in Africa, not with truth, just ceremony.

By the way, I really like Michelle Obama, they don't come much better than her.

ADDENDUM: There are over 2 million people suffering from AIDS in Africa. That is almost 20% of the population. There are over 2 million children who have lost their parents to AIDS in Africa. These facts may clarify this blog.

Saturday, May 28, 2011

HOW GREED OVERCAME CHARACTER...

For many years after the continuous attack on my credibility from some of my former senior executives at Alliance Bernstein (formerly S.C. Bernstein & Co.), I made very serious efforts to maintain a personal relationship with some of them. It was kind of like a "forgive and forget" and move on with life.

Finally the obnoxious comments of Roger Hertog at a dinner with our wives was the last straw in forgiving and forgetting. If it wasn't for Roger's inflammatory comments about my personality, the blogs that I have written probably would have never been done.

Ethics is a strange thing. It can be used to cover up subtle unethical behaviors, and when truth be told, it's characteristic to cry "How could you do that to me?"

I wasn't just an employee at S.C. Bernstein, it was my company and a significant loophole in the corporate papers, was turned against me by two greedy associates.

As fate would have it, I received a call from Sanford Bernstein's brother, Paul Bernstein. He informed me of how he was writing a book about his life with his brother and will be coming down to Florida to interview me. He assured me of his integrity and positive intentions. (He has never shown up or called again.)

When he called he reminded me of a totally true story, that many of you will think is inappropriate to publish. It is a small truth about a wicked man, who in his later years seemed to hide behind religious activities to cover up his abuses of other human beings, many of which I was personal witness to. Whereas Roger Hertog and Lew Sanders, appeared to stand in the background, seemingly afraid to raise their voices.

When Paul phoned he recalled his humiliation when his brother, who was then CEO of the company, took out his private parts, and p----d upon his desk in front of other employees.

Paul's story reminded me of a time when this same Bernstein, at a corporate party, took out his private parts in front of woman for reasons that you can analyze on your own. Several partners of the firm thought this was funny and that it was just Bernstein. Please note in the Bernstein eulogies by Hertog and Sanders,(earlier blog) the comments about his continual use of vulgarity and sexual innuendo. This was the real Bernstein, this is a small part of what I dealt with as President of the company, all else is tragic.

I certify this to be true.

Friday, May 13, 2011

PART ONE OF SEVEN - THE EARLY INTRODUCTION OF PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT AT SANFORD BERNSTEIN AS DELIVERED BY SHEPARD OSHEROW, PRESIDENT

When I was elected President of Sanford Bernstein and Company, after the disastrous management of the accounts under Bernstein's leadership, I had to start from scratch. There was no understanding of the firm or its product by the salesforce. There were no systematic rules of investing. You might say that speculation was the rule of the day and diversification standards hardly existed. The following is part one of a speech that I made to our employees in an attempt to step forth into a professional investment methodology. There are five parts to this speech.

PART ONE
The first step in the development of most industrial companies is the definition of that which it is going to do – a simple step, perhaps, but one which the securities industry has rarely taken. Think about this: We cannot control the price of what we sell; we cannot determine its distribution, nor for the most part can we even be free from a competitor offering, not only a similar product, but the exact thing that we are selling. Yet, for years the brokerage industry has prospered without a discernible product, which has insatiable advantages to the people who purchase it. Our key is our ability to position assets to meet a detailed, refined set of agreed-to objectives to a list of customers.

Wall Street has primarily been merchandising business. In the 1920’s (prior to the crash), a book was written titled, “Where are the Customer Yachts”. That title had implications then and meaning up to 1974. Very few investment concerns can point proudly to the product which delivered the customers a yacht; at the extreme, but very few can even point proudly as to how they achieved the goals of the investors who have come to Wall Street with need. As a matter of fact, very few investment mediums can point to any long-term success as it relates to the individual investor as a group. Most mediums for investments do not even attempt nor have they bothered to publish their record. One of the subjects that has come up is what is the product of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.? Over the last 18 months or so, I have asked many of you individually what you thought the product of Bernstein was. Some of the time it was because I was trying to find out if you knew what it was, but most of the time I was trying to get as much information as I could in order to see the development of the product too place along the lines that would be professional and beneficial to every one of us.

I have been in Wall Street since 1955, since 1960 full time. The world will not allow us to look back; there will be other people developing improved money managing products; the format that we basically have here, as hard as it is to believe, the discretionary format, is still unique. The original idea which we will discuss in a short while is exceptional in its concept because of a number of reasons. But just to give you one, which might concern each of your livelihoods, even with the failures that we have had, the basic format is not only potentially unique in its framework of profitability so that if we can combine the necessary talent and have the necessary discipline, we have a framework that can make us proud. The basic framework is unique in its ability to be able to manage thousands of clients for their individual needs. Very few firms have been able to put together that capability, and generally the number of accounts and the types of accounts that can be managed are very few. Now we have another business: we have institutional business. The institutional business as you all have read – and I would like to suggest that each of you re-read for understanding and so that your total participation and feeling towards the firm maintains a very high level, the Policy and Procedure Manual, which in itself took a great deal of work – seems like very little. But just the putting together of it was an extremely hard task. You should all read it and understand it and feel that you are a part of this and that it is basically the business that we are in. We are additionally in the institutional business; for all its merits, for all its time and potential, it is a separate business from the management of individual accounts, and I repeat this meeting is to discuss the product as it relates to the management of individual accounts.
 

Shepard Osherow. All Rights Reserved