WE WILL ALL BE DEAD BY THE TIME THINGS CHANGE.(ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 11/23/11)

Anyone who is against profiling is just plain wrong. If you are looking for a woman you don't stop men. If you are looking for someone who is 7ft. tall and is male you don't stop a 5ft. tall grandmother. If you are looking for blacks, you don't stop whites, and vice versa. Profiling is necessary, prejudice and bias are not. Period, end of subject.
Guns are bad. I'm a registered member of the NRA and have a concealed weapons license, but guns are bad. If we didn't need them they should be outlawed, but we do need them. When the underlying fears of crime, etc. go away, guns will go away. Period, end of subject.
A fetus is a baby the second it's conceived, not three months later. Abortion, equal to the killing of a baby, is obviously a bad thing. Unfortunately, babies are conceived into all kinds of circumstances where they are not wanted by the carrying Mother. Which is worse, forcing a Mother to term or terminating an unwanted baby? This question will never be agreed upon by the opposing opinions. Both sides should choose their own path and moral order. Period, end of subject.
Obviously war and fighting are horrendously bad things but letting your guard down by appeasement or weakness can be even worse. Period, end of subject.
People should be able to practice any sexual activity they want to as long as its between consenting mentally able adults where abuse of either parties is not taking place. Period, end of subject.
Illegal immigrants is another subject that has to be put to rest. Obviously illegal immigration should be stopped or why have the law. If we want these people coming into the country it should be done legally. Aren't we still a country of laws? If we don't want them coming here and doing what they do then we should just face the consequences of higher labor cost especially in food production. Period, end of subject.
The reason I'm writing this is because these are some of the important issues clouding the political agenda. We have more than enough to focus on within education, poverty, sickness, crime and terrorism. Period, end of subject.
When the Democrats talk of special interest groups they forget that the biggest perpetrator of group thinking is our current President followed nose to nose by his Republican opponents. It's time to stop all the baloney as we slide backwards. Period, end of subject.

THE PEOPLE HAVE DECIDED PHASE I - DONALD TRUMP - A MESSENGER OF REALITY OR A RACIST? - YOU DECIDE...(ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 7/8/15)

The "Merciless Indian Savages" so says the Declaration of Independence.  Hard to find words but in the Declaration, nonetheless.  Were they Savages?  We certainly don't think of the American Indians as 'Savages' today.  If one were to call the current Indian population, "descendants of  savages', immediately the media would outcry that the "speaker" was a racist or a bigot.

All Indians obviously were not "savages", maybe some were.  Maybe even alot were, but not all.

Today the buzz word is immigrants.  We know that there is a vast difference between legal immigrants and illegal immigrants.

Why would it not be obvious that illegal immigration should not be allowed.  If we want illegal immigration just take down the immigration laws.

Change the word immigrants to people.  Change the word immigrants to poor people.

Now the question becomes not  who the people are that are coming to the country illegally but do we want the illegal people.  It's hard for me to believe that Donald Trump is a racist.  It shouldn't matter if the people coming into this country illegally are black, white, yellow,purple or green.  It should matter if we want a country of laws.

I wrote a while ago that PS 73, where I went to school in the Bronx, would act as my anchor for whether significant improvement is occurring in the poorer sections of our country.  A review of the test scores at my old school indicates abject failure among the primarily Black and Hispanic children attending the school. A blight on the system, not the children.

That subject is buried, never really brought out as an unacceptable failure, similar to our inability to deal with the illegal immigration situation effectively.  Seventy years after I left that school, the same old building is where the current children attend.  Donald Trump may have presented very inadequately on the illegal people in and coming into this country.  He certainly has presented us with a challenge to decide if we are a nation that fixes problems or accepts the status quo because of political expediency.

WHEN GETTING RE-ELECTED IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN DOING GOOD FOR THE PEOPLE (ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 10/5/11)

In any dialog among or between people, especially in debate or argument, name calling is considered inappropriate. Consequently, although I would like to call our President a liar, I will refrain.

He uses the "inciting" words of let's close the tax loophole. The choice of the word loophole attempts to rally the economically uneducated. There are no loopholes in the tax code.

Charitable deductions are the government's attempt to incentivize contributions to charity. The interest on mortgage deduction is an attempt to incentivize the purchase of homes. (Could you imagine advocating the reduction of an incentive for home purchase under current economic conditions?) The lower rate on capital gains is another incentive for us to invest our savings for the longer term.

There may be a few so called tax incentives (loopholes) that don't serve an economic purpose. These are few and far between. President Obama recently quoted Ronald Reagan. He completely took out of context what President Reagan said. Watch out for Obama. Most of his advocacy is self serving and destructive.

Buzz words like loophole are meant to rally your spirit to vote for him. Look more closely at the impact of his suggestions.

THE LIES POLITICIANS TELL (ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 7/11/11)

Public corporations prepare financial statements. One of these statements is generally called an income statement or profit and loss statement.

Simply put, a company first reports revenues, then subtracts its expenses that created those revenues and then reports whats left as pretax profit.

From the pretax profit federal taxes are subtracted. What's left is called Income after government taxes.

This income is generally used for three or four things. One is to pay dividends, since the majority of shares in America are owned by pension funds, mutual funds and individuals, the dividends are paid to the American public. The second thing the money is often used for is to buy back company shares. When this happens the money is paid to selling shareholders who then deposit it in their bank, reinvest it or spend it. Thirdly the money is spent on capital expenditure; putting up plants and buying equipment. Whatever little is left is retained in the corporation in order to maintain more employment and stability for the company.

NOW THE GOVERNMENT COMES ALONG AND SAYS "WE WANT MORE TAXES". TAXES ARE AN EXPENSE LIKE ANY OTHER EXPENSE OF RUNNING A BUSINESS. THE IMMEDIATE REACTION OF THE COMPANY IS TO THINK ABOUT RAISING PRICES OR REDUCING EXPENSES TO OFFSET THE TAX INCREASE, THEREBY REDUCING CONSUMPTION.

THE NEXT THING THAT HAPPENS IS THAT THE MUTUAL FUNDS, THE PENSION FUNDS AND OTHER SHAREHOLDERS RECEIVE LESS, CAPITAL EXPENDITURES ARE REDUCED, EMPLOYMENT IS REDUCED, AND A TAX INCREASE GENERALLY DOES NOTHING BUT ATTEMPT TO TRANSFER MORE MONEY TO THE GOVERNMENT. THE GOVERNMENT CAN THEN HIRE MORE PEOPLE AND MAKE THEM MORE BEHOLDEN AND THEREFORE VOTE FOR THE PARTY THAT RAISED THE TAXES AND PRODUCED NON-GROWTH GOVERNMENT JOBS.

THIS IS CALLED A NEGATIVE CAPITAL FORMATION ENVIRONMENT. IT'S SOMEWHAT MORE COMPLICATED THAN THIS SIMPLISTIC EXPLANATION AND ALTHOUGH IT MAY MAKE THE FINANCIALLY UNEDUCATED FEEL THEY ARE GETTING A FAIR SHAKE, IN REALITY IT DOES THEM MORE HARM THAN GOOD.

THE STANDARD OF LIVING MUST GO UP (ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 7/18/11)

Charlie Rose was interviewing Larry Summers. He asked him what steps have to be taken in order to get growth to accelerate.

Mr. Summers listed five points. I thought they were all smart. Then Charlie asked Mr. Summers "What about the social compact the government has with the people?"

It never hit me so clearly as it did that moment, the government is like a corporation, it's just a piece of paper.

So who was he talking about that had this social compact with the people? He couldn't be talking about the government because the government is just a provider of services for which it taxes the people.

BUT IN TODAY'S WORLD, MOST AMERICANS DON'T PAY ANY FEDERAL INCOME TAXES OR PRACTICALLY NONE. THAT LEAVES A SELECT VERY FEW PEOPLE WHO HAVE MADE MONEY AND NOW ARE THE ONES BEING ASKED TO HAVE THIS SOCIAL COMPACT WITH THE PEOPLE.

In other words, if you are successful in American, you are a charity machine to everyone else. The democratic party argued that this approach prevents revolution and allows some people to succeed. The implications of this kind of a society are negative for the masses. A standard of living that hasn't increased for ten or twenty years won't until there is a system where everyone is taxed for those services received thru their "compact with the government". That is one of the things that has to be done to create growth.

BLOG FOR THE DAY...(ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 8/14/12)

I said in an earlier blog that the political rhetoric, name calling and class warfare commentaries would inhibit the solving of the problems that exist in our society.

To make this discussion even clearer if someone makes a lot of money they either spend it or invest it. If they build a huge house, their money is transferred to the contractors, brokers, furniture manufacturers, plumbers and everyone else. If they buy stock the money is transferred to the seller, it’s not put under pillows. The same is true for money left to heirs, it circulates through the economic system.

The poorer among us don't want to hear about creating more wealth.  Unfortunately a dynamic, growing, thriving business community is exactly the recipe that will assure an increasing percentage of the population achieve the so called "American Dream".

DISTORTION OF THE TRUTH (ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 9/23/11)

There's another crazy article in the New York newspaper where a "ultra liberal" professor, who is very good with words, pontificates about the so called "wealthy Americans pay remarkably little in taxes". He doesn't point out that one of the main reasons may be that they have invested their money in tax free bonds. The tax free nature of the bonds is federal government policy in order to provide lower interest rates to states and municipalities. The low capital gains rate is government policy to increase investments in capital assets and to protect the savings in mutual funds, pension funds, 401ks, etc.

The writer then maliciously claims that Representative Ryan (who I often don't agree with) wants to exempt the very rich from bearing the burdens of taxes. No matter how you slice it, most of the taxes in this country are paid by the successful. In any case, so few people are in the "rich" category one has to ask, why not spend your time figuring out how to make more people rich.

Let's get it straight. No matter who you tax it takes money away from them, reduces their consumption of goods and services and drives the country further downward. Basically the attack on the few rich people increases unemployment and reduces economic activity. The silly writer talks about the top 100th of 1 percent of income distribution and how much their supposed income rose. That number can easily be affected by just a handful of people and is of no consequence. Who cares about the top 100th of 1 percent anyway?

The writer also talks about a sustained attack on organized labor. Its too bad the writer doesn't point out that almost every major industry that's been unionized has been a total catastrophe. The last time I looked organized labor was already causing dysfunction in the auto industry even before it can really recover.

As regards financial deregulation, it had very little to do with the economic disaster of 2008. Government policy, greed and a bubble were more responsible for what occurred.

I won't comment on the rest of this politically, left wing and inaccurate editorial except to tell Elizabeth Warren and the writer of this article that you should both go live in another country, in one bedroom with a shared bathroom. Then you should give the rest of what you have away, so you can pay your share to "fulfill the social contract" that you don't understand in the slightest.

PROFILING IS SMART...PREJUDICE IS DUMB...

Its obvious we can't live without profiling. Get over it.  Profiling is used in every aspect of our life from building an investment portfolio, to picking a mate, a car or anything else.  Prejudice is DUMB.  Profiling is SMART.

SOLYNDRA SCANDAL - ORIG. PUBLISHED 9/26/11

We first published our blog below about the Solyndra scandal on September 26, 2011.

There's an incredibly misleading editorial about the Solyndra scandal in a leading New York newspaper. A simple review of the company's prospectus immediately highlights the following:

1. Several executives had compensation approaching a million dollars.
2. There were at least 25 million stock options made available to various parties.
3. Large hedge funds were significant owners of the company's shares.

The editorial blames the bankruptcy on a "stunning collapse in the price of solar panels".

It is obvious that before an investment of $500 million occurred analytical reports should have been written forecasting the trend of solar panel prices (if the company did not have enough big commercial customers that should have been easily detectable to anyone that took the time to review the company's position in the marketplace).

To compare the financial crises with the solar panel market is patently absurd. Home prices have risen for many years whereas solar panel prices were really a commodity product.

The idea that risking is what its all about is a joke on its face. Its easy to take risks that are totally wrong, but success is determined by wise decisions. The outlook for solar panel pricing in the United States was obviously negative since the number of companies that have been started in just a few years indicates relatively simple ease of entry and requires no particular technological advantages.

Another disadvantage the solar companies faced is the fact that oil producing countries want to keep any alternative sources of energy out of the picture even though most oil is used for cars and trucks, not power generation. Coal is the only true competitive alternative to solar energy and reducing the demand during the next decade would cause serious additions to unemployment. Unfortunately most of the coal miners could probably not be working in the solar industry.

The relationship between the hedge funds, all sorts of people in government and whether there were unions involved in the Solyandra workforce is only the tip of what seems to be a huge potential scandal of political power with our money.

THIS IS WHY WE CAN'T GET ANYWHERE - "STILL" ORIG. PUBLISHED 9/27/11

Its not considered acceptable to tell the masses of the people that they are economically uneducated and their own worst enemy. The rule is one man, one vote. The Democratic party has figured out how to tell the economically ignorant a lie about how our system works. They get way with it because the average man struggles to make a living. Its easier to have a scape goat than to seek the truth.

The government did not bail out the banks. That is a total lie. The financial system of this country was falling apart. The impact on the "common man" (which is all of us), would have been so devastating that the resulting unemployment, loss of pension funds, etc. could have overwhelmed everyone. The government did not save the "rich banks"; it saved those of us who are the depositors of the banks, the receivers of their loans and dependent on them for millions of jobs. The Democratic party finds it expedient to outright lie to the people.

The second lie is that the rich, whomever that is, have benefited far in proportion to the rest of the population. I reiterate again why is the government so worried about any particular class of people rather than working together to solve our problems without promoting class warfare.

Lets get something clear between us. Lets say I have $1 million dollars. If I take that money and rip it up then $1 million dollars disappears from the economy. But if I take that money and spend it, give it to the plumber, the car manufacturer, to the restaurants and some to the government. then the $1 million dollars is circulated throughout the economy. What I don't spend I invest. Lets say I buy stock with my $1 million dollars. I get the stock but someone else gets the $1 million dollars and no matter who it is, they take that money, spend it, invest it and it keeps on circulating. But its still only $1 million dollars. The only question of any relevance is how to turn the $1 million into more money, plant, equipment and capital and have it circulating through the economy.

The only thing the Democratic party wants to do is keep you uneducated. The more of you who become more economically educated the less of you will agree with the Democrat's self-serving, power preserving, education diminishing, democratic policies.

Warren Buffett is looking out for his own A-S. He is more concerned with you buying his own product, like Geico, (which is the worst insurance company I have ever dealt with) than helping you become educated.

Just remember what Warren Buffett wrote on June 26, 2006, "The only condition to this committment is that the Foundation must continue to satisfy legal requirements qualifying my gift as charitable and not subject to gift or other taxes."

TRUMP, CLINTON, RUBIO, BUSH - AMERICA...GET THE RIGHT CONDUCTOR...(ORIG. PUBLISHED 1/24/12)

There could be 100 instruments in a symphony orchestra. Be as it may, classical music is not mainstream. Many orchestras have gone out of business for lack of public support.

Now think of these 100 instruments with 100 players and hundreds if not thousands of note combinations that are played at any particular symphony. In the front stands the music conductor, generally knowledgeable about all the pieces in the orchestra and having the job of bringing them together into symphonic harmony so that an audience may enjoy the outpouring of the music. Thousands of notes, just a hundred people and a conductor pulling it all together. It's no wonder so many conductors never make it big time. Think of the genius of Beethoven, Bach or Mozart writing the music for each and every piece. Complex, yes and generally unappreciated by society.

We are all managers of something, whether its our family, a job, our business, from a small corporation or a gigantic one, from an island, to a city, to a state and on upwards.

Whether the most powerful force in our government or not, the President stands as the conductor of an awful large orchestra. One of the major questions we are faced with in an election year is which future President will "conduct" the pieces of this ultra large orchestral phenomenon called the United States as to bring out the great music that our founding fathers would have hoped for without over blowing majority rule or undermining minority rights.

We must ask the question of whether a republic democracy can ever play harmonious music when the various players can't agree on the notes to be played. As long as the dissension of voter views stays so wide spread we may feel we are this great democracy. That might even be true if the standard of living hadn't stop increasing 20 years ago. Politicians in general don't want to conduct, they want to build power bases.

TRUMP VS. CLINTON - THE SAME AS OBAMA VS. ROMNEY (ORIG. PUBLISHED 9/28/12)

Everyone expects President Obama to win the first debate.  If Candidate Romney has the wisdom to present the facts clearly and strongly, he should win the debate easily.

1. The socialistic policies of Europe have resulted in an 20% plus unemployment rate in Spain and Greece. Italy and Portugal are heading in the same direction.
2. Japan has become a no growth economy for over a decade because it too followed the wrong policies.
3. The chaos in the Middle East is as bad as it's ever been, if not worse.
4. The domestic coal industry has collapsed.
5. The price of natural gas is so low that no one will make much money producing it.
6. Only 25% of the people in Afghanistan can read after all this time.
7. There is no sound reason the Ambassador in Libya should have not been protected.
8. The economy has been buoyed by only Federal Reserve policies of "zero" percent interest rates.  
9. The head of the Federal Reserve was originally appointed by President Bush and only reappointed by President Obama because he had little choice at the time.
10. The democratic political rhetoric about the plight about the middle class is bogus because all the places the middle class work can only provide them with more income if the economy has stable, steady, faster growth.
11. The use of labels like "middle-class' and "ultra-wealthy" can be turned on the President by pointing out economic truths.
12. The Democratic solar and wind power initiatives are failing and even have included malfeasance and misfeasance - "Solyndra".
13. The economy is at a standstill  - real unemployment is well above the reported unemployment figures.
14. Democrat Pelosi's son worked for the largest purveyor of subprime mortgages.
15. Barney Frank drove Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into bankruptcy with his political agenda.
16. Although well hidden, President Clinton was a major perpetrator of the housing fiasco.
17. Obama's head of the SEC, Shapiro, was involved with Bernie Madoff.
18. The President's agenda called for the demise of "Don't ask, Don't tell" when everybody's sexuality should be their own business.
19. Under Obama, killing babies is not even questioned as long as the pro-abortion position gets votes.  
20. The constant attack on the top one percent never points out that they pay most of the taxes anyhow and that President Obama never hesitates to take large political donations from them. 
21. The Democrats never have the courage to claim that federal income taxes should be paid by everyone as a citizen of this country.
22. The President never points out that low tax rates are usually from charitable deductions and tax free municipal bonds which are both perfectly legal government tax policies.

The argument is not about who care about the middle class because both candidates do.  It's about whose policies will give the middle class and all class policies more.  

LAFAYETTE -"PSYCHOPATHS AMONG US"...IT'S NOT GOING AWAY...(ORIGINALLY PUBLSIHED JUNE 2015)

Drugs, alcohol and schizophrenia or other mental illnesses have been involved in most mass murders from Dahner to Bundy to the South Carolina atrocity, etc. etc.

Major mental institutions have been closed. We don't treat mental illness with any degree of intensity.  The South Carolina murderer wanted to kill Blacks, Hispanics and Jews (who are both considered primarily white).

The belief the South Carolina murderer had of "Blacks taking over" was a delusion.  Other sick people have expressed their psychotic, schizophrenic tendencies thru believing they were the Messiah or some other mental derangement.

You take alcohol your mind can become confused. You take certain drugs your mind can become confused. Confused minds do strange things including shooting people in fits of mental breakdown.

Our society does not get rid of tobacco, alcohol, drugs, etc.

Columbine, Sandy Hook, Dahmer, Bundy, were all users of these mind altering products.  When sick minds use these substances, especially at the average age of about twenty when first psychotic breaks are likely to occur, unfathomable tragedies are likely.  

CHICAGO - ANOTHER OBAMA FAILURE...(ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 8/21/13)

This will be the last comment on Chicago.

The number of Chicago shootings in the last week, including both killed and wounded, is astounding.  The sociological and demographic implications will become clearer as the number of safe places in the city shrinks.  There is no outrage proportionate to the problem. The results will clearly  not be good.

CHICAGO...GUNS, MURDER AND POLITICS....(ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 2/15/13)

If a certain segment of the population was removed from the murder statistics, the number of deaths per capita of the total population would be significant lower.  Although these statistics are posted on the Internet, as a nation we are not allowed to talk about this segment that has a very high gun death rate.

We focus on the horrible mass murders seemingly perpetrated by the segment of the population with much lower murders per capita.   This is appropriate as all these outrageous acts can not be explained with just simple words.

The nation doesn't have the backbone to face up to the statistics.  We look back over our history and we are convinced to blame ourselves for the murder rate.

Until we face the truth of which groups are committing a disproportionate number of murders in America, we will never fix the problem.

Politics in this nation has turned out to be all about groups, you go after the Christian vote, the Jewish vote, the Gay vote, the Union vote, the Women's vote, etc.  Grouping people together is commonplace.

When it comes to facing the gun issue, an "inconvenient  truth" is shoveled under the rug and everybody loses especially the poor.  On this issue, grouping is called prejudice.  

WHY HILLARY CLINTON SHOULD NOT BE ELECTED PRESIDENT...

Hillary Clinton recently claimed that prosperity is not just for CEOs and Hedge Fund managers.  She conveniently forgot that prosperity may not just be for Ex Presidents either.  

Furthermore, she doesn't bother to point out that if state governments, university endowments, unions and others did not give hedge funds their assets to manage, hedge fund managers would be making a lot less.

She said that democracy is not just for corporations. She left out almost everyone works for "corporations". Corporations are the basis of how we organize together for a substantial part of our lives. 

She conveniently left out that the entertainers and Hollywood people that support her are billionaires and millionaires  and CEOs.  To be more precise, she forgot to point out that almost the entire retirement and pension system is funded in one respect or another by our corporations.  She also left out that a significant portion of the wealth of the country is invested for the benefit of millions and millions of future retirees in the stocks and bonds of these corporations for which "most of us" work.  She also doesn't seem to care or know how the economy functions (for another time).

She should not be running for President because her campaign will be based on these kinds of deceptions and outright belief that the electorate is "stupid".

 

FIFA SUIT IS DUE TO RUSSIA, OIL AND GOOGLE..(ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED 9/22/11)...

If you want to be really disgusted with the functioning of the Justice Department, take a look at the extensive list of antitrust cases filed under the Department's website.

The Justice Department has brought cases against Alcoa; a company that's gone nowhere, Eastman Kodak; a company that is virtually out of business, Microsoft; as it came under intense competition, IBM; still around but not really ever growing, etc. Now they are finally attacking Google, as it's primacy in the Internet market comes under fierce attack.

I decided to just pull a case at random. It's hard to believe but in 1993 our Justice Department, yours and mine, actually filed a case against a company for attempting to maintain the retail price of HOCKEY SKATES WITH V2 BLADES. There is no more inept view of our country than the destruction brought to the business community by the insanity of having an antitrust case over hockey skates.

Another example of a government department that's overzealous, over sized and out of control.

THE BLOG IS BACK

I decided to put the website back up because so many people reached out and requested I do so.  Thank you to all of our loyal followers. 

OBAMA'S DEMOCRATIC DECEIT...

It may have been going on for a long time but there's a serious flaw in the Democrat's political stance.

When President Obama says he is for the middle class and not the rich cats of Wall Street it makes me disgusted because it's a big lie.

Millions of people work for his so called "Wall Street". Pension funds, mutual funds, banks, brokerage firms, insurance companies, real estate companies, payroll processors, consultants, accountants, lawyers and the list could go on and on.

Does President Obama mean that his supporters, George Soros,  Bruce Springsteen, Barbara Streisand, George Clooney, Bill Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, Elizabeth Warren, Beyonce and Jay Z are the rich cats of Wall Street.  These people are multi-millionaires or billionaires.

The Democratic party should be held to explaining who exactly they are referring to.  Do we want to keep the majority of our people ignorant of economic realities?

Does he mean if a middle class person is invested in the stock market that they are rich cats of Wall Street? His whole political equation is so stupid that its not worth writing about anymore.

I've written hundreds of blogs.  Some were significantly correct and a few were somewhat wrong.  I tried my best to be objective and fair and for the most part I think I did a good job.

This will be my last blog and want to thank all the people who have followed the Osherow Institute.  May all be healthy and happy.

OIL IS NOT HOUSING - BLOG OF THE DAY...

The pundits of doom are reappearing.  This time it concerns the negative effect of the substantial and rapid decline in crude oil prices.  If the price of oil remains in the $70 dollar area it will cause the need for certain economic adjustments.  Some pundits are comparing the oil price decline to the housing crisis.

This is totally wrong.  The comparison is little or none.   The reason is that there were no real beneficiaries from the substantial decline in home prices.  There are countless beneficiaries from the substantial decline in crude.  That is the vast difference.  It will work out that way.