Wednesday, April 4, 2018


When the housing boom was taking place it developed huge vested interest in the continuation of the housing bubble. A voice in the dark could point out the absurdities of what was happening but the enjoyment of inflated prices and profits overwhelmed sanity, logic, discipline and history.

In my opinion, we are now being faced with a "time bomb" that will far exceed long term capital management, the insurance protection decline of the 1980s and the financial collapse of 2008. This huge "Black Swan", huge beyond comprehension, will hit when least expected and we will wonder why it wasn't dealt with before. The answer will be found underneath the rubble of certain greedy Wall Street types and vested political interests.

We cannot permit automated machine type trading, with no relationship to companies outlook, etc. to dominate the volume of trades in the stock market. There is no excuse, none whatsoever, for creating a machine driven gambling casino mentality in order to justify the existence of capitalism.

Here is what's going to happen. A computer driven decline will occur and the brakes will fail due to human error or whatever causing the equity wealth of the country to be sharply cut again. Because there will be something happening in the world at that time, recovery will not be as fast as it was in the late 2000's. All computerized trading, of the type we are referring to, should be made illegal and stopped before its too late.

The vested interest will tell you otherwise and make their case. Just like in the long term capital case they are mostly using other people's money and are more concerned with their chance of winning than losing. The monies not theirs anyhow and there is no concern for the system, only their own profits.

Look at the erratic swings in the stock market that have occurred in the last few weeks. We draw this as a small example, a very small example, of what is coming if we don't stop this type of computerized trading.

P.S. Please remember that I am a very strong supporter of capitalism and many of the activities that our financial firms participate in. The probably isn't a better system than ours.

Shepard Osherow. All Rights Reserved